Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CH · Market cap CHF 6.0B · ISIN CH0009002962
What is Barry Callebaut AG really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 15% below our fair value of CHF 1,281.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from CHF 711.91 to CHF 1,281 (+80.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −1.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 825.05 to CHF 1,602) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 709.68 – CHF 2,157 · fair‑value band CHF 825.05 – CHF 1,602 · the CHF 1,087 price screens below the CHF 1,281 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Barry Callebaut AG (BARN) currently trades at CHF 1,087, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 1,281, implying the stock looks roughly 15.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 711.91 per share, and 2 of the 17 models we run sit above the CHF 1,087 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at CHF 263.41, and 15 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Barry Callebaut AG generated revenue of CHF 14.3B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue declined 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.4%. Net debt stands at CHF 4.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 825.05 (bear case) to CHF 1,602 (bull case); at CHF 1,087, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 18%, BARN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly CHF 15.27 per share, which is 1.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (CHF 711.91) versus DCF Models (CHF 6.89). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa.
Full company description
Barry Callebaut AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of chocolate and cocoa products in Western Europe, North America, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Global Chocolate and Global Cocoa. It offers chocolates, chips and chunks, cocoa, cacao fruit, fillings, coatings, nuts, decorations and inclusions, and food colorants, as well as beverage products for vending machines. The company is also involved in the sourcing of ingredients for chocolate production and cocoa-processing business. In addition, it provides centralized treasury and management services, captive reinsurance, research and development services, and conference and training services through CHOCOLATE ACADEMY centers. The company markets its products under the American Almond, Barry Callebaut, Cacao Barry, Cacaofruit, Callebaut, Caprimo, Carma, Dings Décor, Gertrude Hawk Ingredients, Mona Lisa, Van Houten, and Van Leer Chocolates brands. It serves food manufacturers and artisans, as well as professional users of chocolate, including chocolatiers, pastry chefs, and bakers. Barry Callebaut AG was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Barry Callebaut AG reported revenue of CHF 14.8B in FY2025 versus CHF 7.2B in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 186M in FY2025, compounding −16.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Confectioners · 80 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 90,700 | CHF 9,281 | −90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $62.36 | $27.36 | −56% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $179.05 | $91.25 | −49% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 124,600 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +63% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | −43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | −56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹652.15 | ₹318.59 | −51% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | −12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 25,300 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +67% |
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