Mondelez International, Inc (MDLZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $78.8B
Mondelez International, Inc
MDLZ · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $27.68 to $43.88 (+58.5%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +8.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($31.15 to $68.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.45 – $71.47 · fair‑value band $31.15 – $68.01 · the $63.53 price screens above the $43.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Mondelez International, Inc (MDLZ) currently trades at $63.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.88, implying the stock looks roughly 30.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mondelez International, Inc generated revenue of $39.3B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $20.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $31.15 (bear case) to $68.01 (bull case); at $63.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside, at -31%, MDLZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($32.46) versus Earnings-Based ($12.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
Full company description
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mondelez International, Inc reported revenue of $38.5B in FY2025 versus $28.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −13.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.4 pp · buybacks/dilution +2.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MDLZ screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Mondelez’s (MDLZ) Earnings Beat May Matter Less Than Its 2027 Growth Bet
- Mondelez (MDLZ) Reliance on International Sales: What Investors Need to Know
- Mondelez (MDLZ) Tackles Cocoa Costs While Recalling Cadbury Oreo Candy Bar
Peer Group
Confectioners · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 94,500 | CHF 9,669 | -90% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $184.23 | $91.25 | -50% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,127 | CHF 711.91 | -37% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 132,800 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +53% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | -43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | -56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹604.70 | ₹304.54 | -50% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | -12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 26,850 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +57% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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