Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $78.8B · ISIN US6092071058
What is Mondelez International Inc really worth?
Mondelez International Inc
MDLZ · US
A solid business, but trading 40% above our fair value of $43.88.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from $27.36 to $43.88 (+60.4%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −1.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($31.15 to $68.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.45 – $71.47 · fair‑value band $31.15 – $68.01 · the $61.45 price screens above the $43.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) currently trades at $61.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $43.88, implying the stock looks roughly 40.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $32.46 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $61.45 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $12.80, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Mondelez International Inc generated revenue of $39.3B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 8.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. Net debt stands at $20.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $31.15 (bear case) to $68.01 (bull case); at $61.45, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −29%, MDLZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.0340 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($32.46) versus Earnings-Based ($12.80). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
Full company description
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mondelez International Inc reported revenue of $38.5B in FY2025 versus $28.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding −13.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.4 % · buybacks/dilution +2.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MDLZ screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Protein Snacks Market 2026-2030 Report Now Available — Forecasts $14.56B in Market Growth Through 2030, Profiling Nestlé, PepsiCo, Mondelez,
- Why Is Mondelez (MDLZ) Down 3.1% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Mondelez International (MDLZ) Enters The US Protein Bar Market
Peer Group
Confectioners · 80 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 90,700 | CHF 9,281 | −90% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $179.05 | $91.25 | −49% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,115 | CHF 711.91 | −36% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 124,600 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +63% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | −43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | −56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹652.15 | ₹318.59 | −51% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | −12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 25,300 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +67% |
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