Hershey Co (HSY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $34.8B · ISIN US4278661081
What is Hershey Co really worth?
Hershey Co
HSY · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $164.25.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $91.25 to $164.25 (+80.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −2.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $138.17 – $252.37 · fair‑value band $116.08 – $205.33 · the $175.06 price screens above the $164.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Hershey Co (HSY) currently trades at $175.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $164.25, implying the stock looks roughly 6.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $87.11 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $175.06 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $32.94, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Hershey Co generated revenue of $12.0B at a net margin of 9.1%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.2%. Net debt stands at $4.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $116.08 (bear case) to $205.33 (bull case); at $175.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −6%, HSY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($87.11) versus Asset-Based ($15.28). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International.
Full company description
The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. The company offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; protein bars; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, bars, snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and pretzels. It provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Sour Strips, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands. The company markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores. It exports its products in approximately 65 countries worldwide. The Hershey Company was founded in 1894 and is based in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hershey Co reported revenue of $11.7B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was $883M in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch HSY: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hershey (HSY) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know
- THE HERSHEY COMPANY NAMES DAVE HULAYS CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Peer Group
Confectioners · 80 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 90,700 | CHF 9,281 | −90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $62.36 | $27.36 | −56% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,115 | CHF 711.91 | −36% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 124,600 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +63% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | −43% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥20.48 | ¥9.09 | −56% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹652.15 | ₹318.59 | −51% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | −12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 25,300 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +67% |
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