Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings (000833) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 18.8B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥9.83 to ¥9.09 (−7.5%) since Jul 21, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥11.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥6.37 to ¥11.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.15 – ¥31.48 · fair‑value band ¥6.37 – ¥11.90 · the ¥20.56 price screens above the ¥9.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings (000833) currently trades at ¥20.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.09, implying the stock looks roughly 55.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings generated revenue of 3.4B CNY at a net margin of 17.3%. Revenue grew 43.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. Net debt stands at 1.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥6.37 (bear case) to ¥11.90 (bull case); at ¥20.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -37% fair-value upside, at -56%, 000833 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (¥10.17) versus Asset-Based (¥3.29). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sell sugar, paper, pulp, organic-inorganic compound, and organic fertilizers in China.
Full company description
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sell sugar, paper, pulp, organic-inorganic compound, and organic fertilizers in China. The company offers white and brown sugar, paper pulp, roll core paper, white cardboard base, paper, anti-stick base paper, cardboard, pyrite ore, sulfuric acid, reagent acid, iron ore powder, phosphate fertilizer, amino sulfonic acid, and silver powder. It also engages in the mining, processing, and sales of chemical minerals; logistics; and real estate development activities. Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Guangxi Guitang (Group) Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings reported revenue of ¥3.1B in FY2025 versus ¥3.1B in FY2021, a compound −0.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥480M in FY2025, compounding +16.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −3.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
000833 screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 94,500 | CHF 9,669 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.78 | $27.36 | -56% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $184.23 | $91.25 | -50% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,127 | CHF 711.91 | -37% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 132,800 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +53% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.00 | $22.21 | -43% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 54.85 | kr 59.12 | +8% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹604.70 | ₹304.54 | -50% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,295 IDR | 1,140 IDR | -12% |
| ORION Holdings 001800 | 26,850 KRW | 42,237 KRW | +57% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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