Li Auto Inc (LI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $13.3B · ISIN US50202M1027
What is Li Auto Inc really worth?
Li Auto Inc
LI · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 77% above our fair value of $6.82.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $6.83 to $6.82 (−0.1%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −6.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.74 – $46.65 · fair‑value band $4.94 – $6.82 · the $12.06 price screens above the $6.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Li Auto Inc (LI) currently trades at $12.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.82, implying the stock looks roughly 76.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $47.43 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the $12.06 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $17.36, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Li Auto Inc generated revenue of $109B at a net margin of −1.7%. Revenue declined 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $39.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.94 (bear case) to $6.82 (bull case); at $12.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −43%, LI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($100.87) versus Multiples ($17.36). Highest evidence: Owner Earnings (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles.
Full company description
Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. The company designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. Its product line comprises multi-purpose vehicles and sport utility vehicles. The company offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as manufacturing equipment. It offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Li Auto Inc reported revenue of 109B CNY in FY2025 versus 26.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +42.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.1B CNY in FY2025.
LI screens 77% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $191.84 | $247.83 | +29% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | −37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.50 | €167.67 | −53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.27 | $52.69 | −39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $13.88 | $11.51 | −17% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €46.95 | €106.16 | +126% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | −61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹12,694 | ₹8,236 | −35% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €77.42 | €248.34 | +221% |
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