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Japan Airlines Ltd ADR (JAPSY) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $7.4B · ISIN US4710381090

What is Japan Airlines Ltd ADR really worth?

JA Japan Airlines Ltd ADR logo Japan Airlines Ltd ADR JAPSY · US
Price$9.47
Fair Value$22.51
Upside+137.7%
Quality61/100

A solid business, trading 58% below our fair value of $22.51.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (13/14)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +34.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.7% net margin
!Narrow moat 39/100

For context

·3.54% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $16.84 – $28.79

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price +1.0% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($16.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$10.63 $6.75 Fair Value $22.51 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.75 – $10.63 · fair‑value band $16.84 – $28.79 · the $9.47 price screens below the $22.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

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Analysis

Japan Airlines Ltd ADR (JAPSY) currently trades at $9.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.51, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $23.71 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.47 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.62, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Japan Airlines Ltd ADR generated revenue of ¥2.0T at a net margin of 6.7%. Revenue grew 9.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $135B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.84 (bear case) to $28.79 (bull case); at $9.47, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 138%, JAPSY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $16.73 $23.84 $33.88 81
Growth DCF $17.03 $23.43 $32.00 79
Owner Earnings $9.82 $13.69 $19.17 77
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $16.73 $23.84 $33.88 81
Owner Earnings $9.82 $13.69 $19.17 77
5Y Revenue Exit $15.92 $23.71 $33.43 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $22.94 $36.51 $52.03 75
5Y P/E Exit $16.55 $24.86 $33.31 71
10Y Revenue Exit $15.67 $22.65 $31.60 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $20.41 $31.22 $45.16 68
10Y P/E Exit $16.47 $23.42 $31.52 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $7.29 $19.89 $26.09 65
Lynch FV $3.93 $5.62 $7.30 61
PEG = 1.0 $3.93 $5.62 $7.30 57
EPV $11.80 $13.42 $14.81 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $16.88 $22.51 $28.14 63
P/S Multiple $13.67 $18.22 $22.78 58
P/B Multiple $13.67 $18.22 $22.78 55
EV/EBIT $22.16 $29.02 $35.89 66
EV/EBITDA $29.93 $39.39 $48.85 67
EV/Revenue $16.26 $22.56 $28.86 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.76 $6.38 $9.52 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.03 $23.43 $32.00 79
Rev-Margin DCF $15.92 $23.81 $32.60 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $8.51 $9.67 $16.74 69
ROIC Compounder $12.19 $14.69 $17.59 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $13.37 $19.09 $24.82 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($23.71) versus Earnings-Based ($5.62). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.9
P/S ratio 0.67 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.9600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9
Dividend yield 3.5% payout 34.9%
Net margin 6.8% FY2026
Return on equity 12.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 6.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥2.0T TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.1% 3y avg +15.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +24.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $197B FY2026
Net cash $135B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 60
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 43
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 49
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled and non-scheduled air transport services in Japan, Asia, Oceania, the Americas, and internationally.

Full company description

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled and non-scheduled air transport services in Japan, Asia, Oceania, the Americas, and internationally. The company engages in full-service and low-cost carrier, and cargo and mail; air transport-related businesses, such as airport passenger service, ground handling, maintenance, cargo, and passenger sales; and airport peripheral businesses, including mileage, lifestyle, and infrastructure. It also engages in the air mobility; contract; travel and regional revitalization; and other businesses. As of March 31, 2025, it operated a fleet of 232 aircraft. The company was formerly known as Japan Airlines International Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. in April 2011. Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Japan Airlines Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥2.1T in FY2026 versus ¥705B in FY2022, a compound +31.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥146B in FY2026.

Growth Quality 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
¥2.1T
Latest YoY
+15.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (36Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.6% (19.1 + 3.5)
Revenue +31.9%/yr
FY22 ¥705B
FY23 ¥1.4T
FY24 ¥1.7T
FY25 ¥1.8T
FY26 ¥2.1T
Net income
FY22 −¥178B
FY23 ¥34.4B
FY24 ¥95.5B
FY25 ¥107B
FY26 ¥146B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −5.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.8 %

of which total revenue +4.0 % · buybacks/dilution −2.1 %

EBIT margin −4.4 %
Tax rate −3.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Japan Airlines Ltd ADR · Fair Value
$22.51 +58%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Airlines Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JAPSY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Airlines · 57 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +138% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.62× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.9× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.89× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.57× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 53
FUTURE46 · sector 51
PAST49 · sector 48
HEALTH69 · sector 69
DIVIDEND71 · sector 48

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $80.07 $115.82 +45%
United Airlines Holdings UAL $110.60 $175.62 +59%
Ryanair Holdings RYA €25.47 €41.26 +62%
Southwest Airlines Co LUV $38.73 $14.76 −62%
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,166 ₹3,073 −41%
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.09 SGD 7.89 SGD +11%
Air China Limited 601111 ¥5.94 ¥7.16 +21%
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $52.50 $106.79 +103%
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥5.08 ¥1.28 −75%
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €7.99 €18.94 +137%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Japan Airlines Ltd ADR (JAPSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.51 versus a price of $9.47, about +138% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of JAPSY?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Airlines Ltd ADR is $22.51 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.47.
What is the quality score of JAPSY?
Japan Airlines Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Japan Airlines Ltd ADR (JAPSY)?
Japan Airlines Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.0T (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of JAPSY?
The net profit margin of Japan Airlines Ltd ADR is about 6.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Japan Airlines Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Japan Airlines Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.54% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
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