EN DE

Howden Joinery Group (HWDN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 4.4B GBX

HJ Howden Joinery Group HWDN · LSE
Price£8.23
Fair Value£9.24
Upside+12.3%
Quality74/100
Watch Howden Joinery Group for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 11.1% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.76% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Wide moat 68/100
Evidence: High Range £6.49 – £11.99 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +3.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (£6.49 to £11.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from £6.49 (bear) to £11.99 (bull), base £9.24. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 74/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£9.50 £4.28 Fair Value £9.24 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £4.28 – £9.50 · fair‑value band £6.49 – £11.99 · the £8.23 price screens below the £9.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Howden Joinery Group (HWDN) currently trades at £8.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £9.24, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Howden Joinery Group generated revenue of £2.4B at a net margin of 11.1%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.1%. Net debt stands at £968M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £6.49 (bear case) to £11.99 (bull case); at £8.23, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 12%, HWDN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £7.34 £10.22 £14.11 80
Residual Income £3.00 £3.88 £14.14 76
Rev-Margin DCF £6.38 £9.49 £13.00 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £7.22 £10.45 £15.07 38
Owner Earnings £6.06 £8.72 £12.52 31
5Y Revenue Exit £6.38 £9.44 £13.27 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £8.28 £12.94 £18.29 41
5Y P/E Exit £7.35 £11.22 £15.21 38
10Y Revenue Exit £6.47 £9.28 £12.90 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £7.81 £11.64 £16.59 37
10Y P/E Exit £7.23 £10.48 £14.33 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £3.32 £9.52 £12.55 54
Lynch FV £1.96 £2.79 £3.63 50
PEG = 1.0 £1.96 £2.79 £3.63 46
EPV £5.23 £5.96 £6.59 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £1.87 £3.72 £5.63 70
DDM Multi-Stage £1.87 £2.93 £3.92 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £7.68 £10.24 £12.80 63
P/S Multiple £6.22 £8.29 £10.36 58
P/B Multiple £6.22 £8.29 £10.36 55
EV/EBIT £8.88 £11.63 £14.38 53
EV/EBITDA £9.97 £13.09 £16.20 54
EV/Revenue £6.18 £8.56 £10.93 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £1.08 £1.45 £2.17 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £7.34 £10.22 £14.11 80
Rev-Margin DCF £6.38 £9.49 £13.00 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £3.00 £3.88 £14.14 76
ROIC Compounder £5.47 £6.54 £7.68 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £6.18 £8.83 £11.48 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£10.45) versus Asset-Based (£1.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Notify me when HWDN reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.4B GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.8%
Net margin 11.1%
Return on equity 23.1%
Free cash flow 342M GBX FY2025
P/E ratio 17.1
More key figures
Operating margin 16.0%
EPS (TTM) £0.4900
Dividend yield 2.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +9.2%
Net debt 968M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 74/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 85
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 42
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 91
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Howden Joinery Group Plc supplies various kitchen, joinery, and hardware products in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and the Republic of Ireland.

Full company description

Howden Joinery Group Plc supplies various kitchen, joinery, and hardware products in the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, and the Republic of Ireland. The company's product portfolio includes cabinet, worktops, sinks and taps, flooring, appliances, and handles; internal and external doors, such as fire doors, flooring, stair parts, and general joinery items; and cooking, cleaning, and cooling appliances. The company was formerly known as Galiform Plc and changed its name to Howden Joinery Group Plc in September 2010. Howden Joinery Group Plc was incorporated in 1987 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Howden Joinery Group reported revenue of £2.4B in FY2025 versus £2.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was £268M in FY2025, compounding −3.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£2.4B
Latest YoY
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.3%
Avg. growth/yr (36Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.9%
Revenue +3.7%/yr
FY21 £2.1B
FY22 £2.3B
FY23 £2.3B
FY24 £2.3B
FY25 £2.4B
Net income −3.9%/yr
FY21 £315M
FY22 £374M
FY23 £255M
FY24 £249M
FY25 £268M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.6 pp

of which total revenue +7.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +1.9 pp

EBIT margin −2.1 pp
Tax rate −0.3 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

Watch HWDN: get an alert when its fair value changes →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Howden Joinery Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HWDN

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +13% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 23% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B 4.94× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.43× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 17.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 13.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.46× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 51 · sector 18
FUTURE 24 · sector 0
PAST 92 · sector 19
HEALTH 100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND 55 · sector 52

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Midea Group 000333 ¥84.34 ¥99.66 +18%
Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 ¥40.23 ¥86.91 +116%
Haier Smart Home Co 600690 ¥21.79 ¥36.04 +65%
King Slide Works Co 2059 12,045 TWD 1,917 TWD -84%
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 ¥173.26 ¥38.83 -78%
Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 ¥27.69 ¥50.62 +83%
Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 ¥57.74 ¥54.14 -6%
Zhejiang Supor Co 002032 ¥41.68 ¥44.84 +8%
COWAY Co 021240 97,200 KRW 103,928 KRW +7%
Voltas Limited VOLTAS ₹1,290 ₹152.27 -88%

Compare Howden Joinery Group with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Howden Joinery Group (HWDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £9.24 versus a price of £8.23, about +12% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HWDN?
Our model-based fair value for Howden Joinery Group is £9.24 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £8.23.
What is the quality score of HWDN?
Howden Joinery Group has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Howden Joinery Group (HWDN)?
Howden Joinery Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £2.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HWDN?
The net profit margin of Howden Joinery Group is about 11.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Howden Joinery Group pay a dividend?
Howden Joinery Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.93% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Howden Joinery Group and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.