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Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $15.4B · ISIN US88023U1016

What is Somnigroup International Inc. really worth?

SI Somnigroup International Inc. logo Somnigroup International Inc. SGI · US
Price$69.52
Fair Value$26.94
Upside−61.3%
Quality39/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 158% above our fair value of $26.94.

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Strengths

✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.8% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Weak on balance sheet: 26 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 18 out of 100

For context

·0.89% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $11.51 – $42.00

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −0.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($11.51 to $42.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$97.54 $19.57 Fair Value $26.94 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.57 – $97.54 · fair‑value band $11.51 – $42.00 · the $69.52 price screens above the $26.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

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Analysis

Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) currently trades at $69.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.94, implying the stock looks roughly 158.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $31.69 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $69.52 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $9.75, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Somnigroup International Inc. generated revenue of $7.7B at a net margin of 6.8%. Revenue grew 12.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.7%. Net debt stands at $8.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $11.51 (bear case) to $42.00 (bull case); at $69.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −61%, SGI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.27 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $15.60 $41.09 $82.98 74
EPV $19.05 $25.74 $31.60 74
Growth DCF $15.73 $40.13 $79.77 73
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $15.60 $41.09 $82.98 74
Owner Earnings $5.95 $24.74 $55.62 68
5Y Revenue Exit $10.48 $31.33 $58.73 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $23.11 $56.29 $96.73 72
5Y P/E Exit $9.36 $29.10 $50.69 67
10Y Revenue Exit $10.96 $30.96 $59.70 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $20.16 $48.83 $90.25 64
10Y P/E Exit $11.20 $29.37 $53.23 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.42 $49.27 $66.94 64
Lynch FV $12.21 $17.44 $22.67 61
PEG = 1.0 $12.21 $17.44 $22.67 57
EPV $19.05 $25.74 $31.60 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $5.56 $11.56 $18.34 66
DDM Multi-Stage $5.56 $9.75 $12.13 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $30.13 $40.17 $50.21 63
P/S Multiple $23.28 $31.04 $38.80 58
P/B Multiple $23.28 $31.04 $38.80 55
EV/EBIT $42.14 $63.22 $84.30 65
EV/EBITDA $31.73 $49.34 $66.96 66
EV/Revenue $8.76 $21.55 $34.34 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.39 $9.90 $14.77 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $15.73 $40.13 $79.77 73
Rev-Margin DCF $10.48 $31.11 $56.53 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $13.82 $16.57 $34.67 71
ROIC Compounder $20.76 $34.43 $53.47 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $22.18 $31.69 $41.20 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($31.69) versus Dividend Discount ($9.75). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 27.8
P/S ratio 1.43 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.50 price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.8
Dividend yield 0.9% payout 24.8%
Net margin 5.1% FY2025
Return on equity 17.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $7.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +12.3% 3y avg +15.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +62.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $633M FY2025
Net debt $8.1B FY2025 · ≈ 12.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 15
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Somnigroup International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails bedding products in the United States and internationally.

Full company description

Somnigroup International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, distributes, and retails bedding products in the United States and internationally. It provides mattresses, foundations and adjustable foundations, and adjustable bases, as well as other products comprising pillows and other accessories under the Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, Stearns & Foster, and Sleepy's brands. The company operates a portfolio of retail brands, including Mattress Firm, Dreams, Tempur-Pedic retail stores, and SOVA; and licenses Sealy, Tempur, and Stearns & Foster brands, as well as technology and trademarks to other manufacturers. It sells its products through company-owned stores, online, and call centers; and third-party retailers, including third party distribution, hospitality, and healthcare. The company was formerly known as Tempur Sealy International, Inc. and changed its name to Somnigroup International Inc. in February 2025. The company was founded in 1846 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Somnigroup International Inc. reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound +11.0%/yr. Reported net income was $384M in FY2025, compounding −11.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 87/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$7.5B
Latest YoY
+51.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−3.2% (−4.1 + 0.9)
Revenue +11.0%/yr
FY21 $4.9B
FY22 $4.9B
FY23 $4.9B
FY24 $4.9B
FY25 $7.5B
Net income −11.4%/yr
FY21 $625M
FY22 $456M
FY23 $368M
FY24 $384M
FY25 $384M

SGI screens 158% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →

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Somnigroup International Inc. · Fair Value
$26.94 −158%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Somnigroup International Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGI

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −61% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 12% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.47× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 27.8× · Pricier than median
P/B 4.96× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.01× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 24.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 15.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.83× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 21
FUTURE62 · sector 0
PAST71 · sector 19
HEALTH26 · sector 98
DIVIDEND18 · sector 58

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 30/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Midea Group 000333 ¥86.98 ¥99.66 +15%
Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 ¥41.58 ¥86.91 +109%
Haier Smart Home Co 600690 ¥21.79 ¥36.04 +65%
King Slide Works Co 2059 12,500 TWD 1,917 TWD −85%
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co 603268 ¥173.26 ¥38.83 −78%
SharkNinja, Inc SN $181.24 $89.07 −51%
Mohawk Industries, Inc MHK $131.70 $119.26 −9%
Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 ¥26.12 ¥50.62 +94%
Alliance Laundry Holdings ALH $25.91 $7.74 −70%
Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 ¥50.93 ¥54.14 +6%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.94 versus a price of $69.52, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SGI?
Our model-based fair value for Somnigroup International Inc. is $26.94 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $69.52.
What is the quality score of SGI?
Somnigroup International Inc. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI)?
Somnigroup International Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SGI?
The net profit margin of Somnigroup International Inc. is about 6.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Somnigroup International Inc. pay a dividend?
Somnigroup International Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
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