Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 155B CNY (≈ $23.1B) · ISIN CNE100001W02
What is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 483% above our fair value of ¥33.01.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +11.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥105.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (¥21.83 to ¥105.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.33 – ¥194.23 · fair‑value band ¥21.83 – ¥105.76 · the ¥192.60 price screens above the ¥33.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) currently trades at ¥192.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥33.01, implying the stock looks roughly 483.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥127.05 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥192.60 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥5.22, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co generated revenue of 27.6B CNY at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 199.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 66.4%. Net debt stands at 13.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥21.83 (bear case) to ¥105.76 (bull case); at ¥192.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −83%, 603268 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥1.39 per share, which is 4.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥127.05) versus Dividend Discount (¥5.22). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series.
Full company description
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series. It also provides coffee and tea ware in checkboard, French romance, bubbles, and tropical rainforest styles; and serving wares. Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Chaozhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported revenue of 21.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 403M CNY in FY2021, a compound +170.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.7B CNY in FY2025.
603268 screens 483% overvalued. Compare with Midea Group →
Peer Group
Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midea Group 000333 | ¥86.98 | ¥99.66 | +15% |
| Gree Electric Appliances, Inc 000651 | ¥41.58 | ¥86.91 | +109% |
| Haier Smart Home Co 600690 | ¥21.79 | ¥36.04 | +65% |
| King Slide Works Co 2059 | 12,500 TWD | 1,917 TWD | −85% |
| SharkNinja, Inc SN | $181.24 | $89.07 | −51% |
| Somnigroup International Inc SGI | $63.65 | $31.69 | −50% |
| Mohawk Industries, Inc MHK | $131.70 | $119.26 | −9% |
| Hisense Home Appliances Group 000921 | ¥26.12 | ¥50.62 | +94% |
| Alliance Laundry Holdings ALH | $25.91 | $7.74 | −70% |
| Ecovacs Robotics Co 603486 | ¥50.93 | ¥54.14 | +6% |
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