Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
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Below-average quality, and trading another 414% above our fair value of ¥38.83.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is ¥38.83 per share against a price of ¥199.59, so the fair value sits 81% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +117.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.7% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
✓Wide moat 70/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range ¥25.68 to ¥124.42
!Weak on dividend: 5 out of 100
Evidence: MediumRange ¥25.68 to ¥124.42
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥38.95 to ¥38.83 (−0.3%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +15.2% over the past month.
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What matters now
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥124.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
The model range is unusually wide (¥25.68 to ¥124.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.33 – ¥199.59 · fair‑value band ¥25.68 – ¥124.42 · the ¥199.59 price screens above the ¥38.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) currently trades at ¥199.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥38.83, implying the stock looks roughly 414.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ¥127.05 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the ¥199.59 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥5.22, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co generated revenue of 27.6B CNY at a net margin of 12.7%. Revenue grew 199.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 66.4%. Net debt stands at 13.4B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Scenario range: ¥25.68 (bear) to ¥124.42 (bull), the price of ¥199.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −81%, 603268 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥1.41 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (¥5.22 to ¥129.68). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio97.4
P/S ratio11.9P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)¥2.05price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.4
Dividend yield0.2%payout 22.2%
Net margin12.3%FY2025
Return on equity66.4%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)−18.3%avg 5y
Operating margin18.4%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)27.6B CNYTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+199%3y avg +331%
EPS growth (YoY)−44.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow−11.1B CNYFY2025
Net debt13.4B CNYFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality34/100
Of which business quality 34
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 86
Profitability47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth86
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum96
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance0
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series.
Full company description
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. produces and sells ceramic products in China and internationally. The company offers tableware in various styles, including garden flowers, ocean's songs, starry sky, and minimalism; kitchenware in various types, such as modern bakeware, vichy check pattern, dopamine colors, and slate series. It also provides coffee and tea ware in checkboard, French romance, bubbles, and tropical rainforest styles; and serving wares. Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Chaozhou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported revenue of 21.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 403M CNY in FY2021, a compound +170.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.7B CNY in FY2025.
Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
21.6B CNY
Latest YoY
+7,772.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+330.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+117.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+36.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+89.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+89.6%
Dividend yield0.2%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 89.6% vs 10Y 24.9%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5.3% (2020) → 17.4% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop1,412% (2021) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in CNY
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 22
FUTURE100· sector 0
PAST100· sector 19
HEALTH81· sector 98
DIVIDEND5· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥38.83 versus a price of ¥199.59, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603268?
Our model-based fair value for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is ¥38.83 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥199.59.
What is the quality score of 603268?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥38.83 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥25.68, optimistic scenario ¥124.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥38.83, about −81% upside versus a price of ¥199.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥25.68, optimistic scenario ¥124.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 27.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603268?
The net profit margin of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co is about 12.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co pay a dividend?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co it is ¥38.83 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of ¥199.59. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, 603268 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥199.59, fair value ¥38.83, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603268?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥199.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥38.83). For Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co the two are ¥160.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co worth?
The market values Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co at about 179B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is ¥199.59; our models calculate a fair value of ¥38.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603268?
Our models span a range for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co: cautious scenario ¥25.68, base ¥38.83, optimistic ¥124.42 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026, price ¥199.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603268?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.4 (as of Aug 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥38.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 16.4, P/S 5.6, EV/EBITDA 27.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (603268)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity 66.4%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603268 from its 52-week high?
Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co trades at ¥199.59, about 18% below its 52-week high of ¥168.53 and 438% above the low of ¥37.10 (as of Aug 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥38.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, King Slide Works Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price ¥199.59, calculated fair value ¥38.83 (−81%), Quality Score 34/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603268 calculated?
We run Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥38.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Guangdong Songfa Ceramics Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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