Herc Holdings (HRI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.9B
Herc Holdings
HRI · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated today
Share price +14.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 100% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6715). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $80.18 – $231.65 · fair‑value band $0.3995 – $0.6715 · the $168.71 price screens above the $0.5355 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Herc Holdings (HRI) currently trades at $168.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5355, implying the stock looks roughly 99.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Herc Holdings generated revenue of $4.7B at a net margin of -0.1%. Revenue grew 32.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -0.3%. Net debt stands at $11.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.3995 (bear case) to $0.6715 (bull case); at $168.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 92% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -18% fair-value upside, at -100%, HRI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($39.08) versus Earnings-Based ($0.2500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment.
Full company description
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company offers ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment; and ProContractor professional grade tools. In addition, it provides various services, including repair, maintenance, equipment management, and safety training; and equipment re-rental and on-site support services, as well as ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. Further, the company sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies. It serves non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors; industrial manufacturing industries, including refineries and petrochemical, automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, and food and beverage industries; infrastructure and government sectors; and commercial facilities, commercial warehousing, education, healthcare, data centers, hospitality, retail, special event management and non-account customers. The company sells its products through its sales team and industry catalogs, as well as through participation and sponsorship of industry events, trade shows, and Internet. Herc Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1965 and is based in Bonita Springs, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Herc Holdings reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0M in FY2025, compounding −74.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HRI screens 100% overvalued. Compare with United Rentals, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Herc Holdings Q2 Earnings Top Estimates on Rental Growth, 2026 View Up
- Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst ...
- Herc Holdings (HRI) Is Up 8.6% After Q2 Profit Surprise And EPS Beat Has The Bull Case Changed?
- Herc Holdings (HRI) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
Peer Group
Rental & Leasing Services · 98 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Rentals, Inc URI | $1,129 | $449.86 | -60% |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB | $80.55 | $65.76 | -18% |
| AerCap Holdings AER | $150.25 | $301.51 | +101% |
| Ryder System, Inc R | $262.96 | $109.71 | -58% |
| Ayvens AYV | €11.68 | €25.90 | +122% |
| Localiza Rent a Car S.A RENT3 | R$34.71 | R$37.01 | +7% |
| Element Fleet Management Corp EFN | C$27.95 | C$15.06 | -46% |
| BOC Aviation Limited 2588 | HK$74.40 | HK$18.61 | -75% |
| GATX Corporation GATX | $177.56 | $140.90 | -21% |
| Avis Budget Group CAR | $139.58 | $158.11 | +13% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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