Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.9B · ISIN US42704L1044
What is Herc Holdings Inc really worth?
Herc Holdings Inc
HRI · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 25,541% above our fair value of $0.5355.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −18.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.6715). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (21/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $80.18 – $231.65 · fair‑value band $0.3995 – $0.6715 · the $138.94 price screens above the $0.5355 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Herc Holdings Inc (HRI) currently trades at $138.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.5355, implying the stock looks roughly 25,541.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $0.6300 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $138.94 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.2500, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Herc Holdings Inc generated revenue of $4.7B at a net margin of −0.1%. Revenue grew 32.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.3%. Net debt stands at $11.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.3995 (bear case) to $0.6715 (bull case); at $138.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −100%, HRI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($39.08) versus Earnings-Based ($0.2500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment.
Full company description
Herc Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an equipment rental supplier in the United States and internationally. It rents aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. The company offers ProSolutions, an industry specific solution-based services, which include power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pump, trench shoring, and studio and production equipment; and ProContractor professional grade tools. In addition, it provides various services, including repair, maintenance, equipment management, and safety training; and equipment re-rental and on-site support services, as well as ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling, and labor. Further, the company sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment, and safety supplies. It serves non-residential and residential construction, specialty trade, restoration, remediation and environment, and facility maintenance contractors; industrial manufacturing industries, including refineries and petrochemical, automotive and aerospace, power, metals and mining, agriculture, pulp, paper and wood, and food and beverage industries; infrastructure and government sectors; and commercial facilities, commercial warehousing, education, healthcare, data centers, hospitality, retail, special event management and non-account customers. The company sells its products through its sales team and industry catalogs, as well as through participation and sponsorship of industry events, trade shows, and Internet. Herc Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1965 and is based in Bonita Springs, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Herc Holdings Inc reported revenue of $4.4B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +20.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0M in FY2025, compounding −74.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HRI screens 25,541% overvalued. Compare with United Rentals, Inc →
Peer Group
Rental & Leasing Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Rentals, Inc URI | $1,038 | $449.86 | −57% |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB | $84.80 | $65.76 | −22% |
| AerCap Holdings AER | $147.49 | $301.51 | +104% |
| U-Haul Holding UHAL | $68.41 | $7.21 | −89% |
| Ryder System, Inc R | $243.48 | $109.71 | −55% |
| Ayvens AYV | €11.36 | €25.90 | +128% |
| Element Fleet Management Corp EFN | C$27.92 | C$20.86 | −25% |
| BOC Aviation Limited 2588 | HK$75.15 | HK$145.91 | +94% |
| GATX Corporation GATX | $173.54 | $140.90 | −19% |
| Avis Budget Group CAR | $139.58 | $158.11 | +13% |
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