AerCap Holdings NV (AER) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $23.2B · ISIN NL0000687663
What is AerCap Holdings NV really worth?
AerCap Holdings NV
AER · US
A solid business, trading 51% below our fair value of $301.51.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −5.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($159.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($159.41 to $406.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.02 – $155.24 · fair‑value band $159.41 – $406.40 · the $146.48 price screens below the $301.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
AerCap Holdings NV (AER) currently trades at $146.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $301.51, implying the stock looks roughly 51.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $448.82 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $146.48 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $77.86, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, AerCap Holdings NV generated revenue of $8.7B at a net margin of 45.2%. Revenue grew 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.1%. Net debt stands at $42.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $159.41 (bear case) to $406.40 (bull case); at $146.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 106%, AER screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $14.51 per share, which is 4.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($448.82) versus Dividend Discount ($19.65). Highest evidence: EPV (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally.
Full company description
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AerCap Holdings NV reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025, compounding +39.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AER: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AerCap (AER) Moves to Strong Buy: Rationale Behind the Upgrade
- Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Wabtec, AerCap and Ryder System
- AerCap Holdings (AER) Joins Baron Capital Fund, Is The Valuation Gap Still Compelling?
- AerCap (AER) Stock Could Be Below Fair Value After A 180% Run
Peer Group
Rental & Leasing Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Rentals, Inc URI | $1,038 | $449.86 | −57% |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB | $84.80 | $65.76 | −22% |
| U-Haul Holding UHAL | $68.41 | $7.21 | −89% |
| Ryder System, Inc R | $243.48 | $109.71 | −55% |
| Ayvens AYV | €11.36 | €25.90 | +128% |
| Element Fleet Management Corp EFN | C$27.92 | C$20.86 | −25% |
| BOC Aviation Limited 2588 | HK$75.15 | HK$145.91 | +94% |
| GATX Corporation GATX | $173.54 | $140.90 | −19% |
| Avis Budget Group CAR | $139.58 | $158.11 | +13% |
| WillScot Holdings WSC | $23.76 | $43.19 | +82% |
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