BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$56.9B (≈ $7.3B) · ISIN SG9999015267
What is BOC Aviation Ltd really worth?
A solid business, trading 50% below our fair value of HK$145.91.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 1, 2026, revised from HK$18.61 to HK$145.91 (+684.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −5.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$102.14). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$102.14 to HK$189.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$38.97 – HK$89.04 · fair‑value band HK$102.14 – HK$189.69 · the HK$73.10 price screens below the HK$145.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) currently trades at HK$73.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$145.91, implying the stock looks roughly 49.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$23.82 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$73.10 price. Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at HK$18.61, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, BOC Aviation Ltd generated revenue of HK$2.3B at a net margin of 34.3%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at HK$16.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$102.14 (bear case) to HK$189.69 (bull case); at HK$73.10, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 100%, 2588 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0244 per share, which is 0.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$23.82) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.60). Highest evidence: Residual Income (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
BOC Aviation Limited operates as an aircraft operating leasing company in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, rest of the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Full company description
BOC Aviation Limited operates as an aircraft operating leasing company in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, rest of the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers a range of services to airlines and aircraft owners, including direct operating and finance leases, sale and leaseback facilities, engine finance leases, and third-party asset management. It also provides aircraft remarketing and technical management services to airlines, banks, and other investors; debt financing and other financial services for airlines; and lease management services for its assets, as well as sells aircraft. The company operates a fleet of owned, managed, and on order aircraft. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Singapore. BOC Aviation Limited is a subsidiary of Bank of China Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BOC Aviation Ltd reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $787M in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.1 % · buybacks/dilution −1.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- BOC Aviation's Townend on Navigating Costs, Fuel, Growth
- BOC Aviation confirms order for up to 220 engines from RTX's Pratt & Whitney
- Is BOC Aviation (SEHK:2588) Undervalued? A Fresh Look at Its Quiet but Steady Performance
- Boeing Wins Order to Supply 50 737-8 Airplanes to BOC Aviation
Peer Group
Rental & Leasing Services · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Rentals, Inc URI | $1,038 | $449.86 | −57% |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB | $84.80 | $65.76 | −22% |
| AerCap Holdings AER | $147.49 | $301.51 | +104% |
| U-Haul Holding UHAL | $68.41 | $7.21 | −89% |
| Ryder System, Inc R | $243.48 | $109.71 | −55% |
| Ayvens AYV | €11.36 | €25.90 | +128% |
| Element Fleet Management Corp EFN | C$27.92 | C$20.86 | −25% |
| GATX Corporation GATX | $173.54 | $140.90 | −19% |
| Avis Budget Group CAR | $139.58 | $158.11 | +13% |
| WillScot Holdings WSC | $23.76 | $43.19 | +82% |
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