GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $656M · ISIN BMG383271050
What is GeoPark Ltd really worth?
GeoPark Ltd
GPRK · US
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $10.75.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +26.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.53 – $14.43 · fair‑value band $8.06 – $13.44 · the $11.90 price screens above the $10.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
GeoPark Ltd (GPRK) currently trades at $11.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.75, implying the stock looks roughly 10.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $12.99 per share, and 7 of the 17 models we run sit above the $11.90 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.55, and 10 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, GeoPark Ltd generated revenue of $484M at a net margin of 11.7%. Revenue declined 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.6%. Net debt stands at $479M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.06 (bear case) to $13.44 (bull case); at $11.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 109% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −10%, GPRK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.5569 per share, which is 5.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($12.99) versus Asset-Based ($2.55). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves.
Full company description
GeoPark Limited operates as an oil and natural gas exploration and production company in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, and other Latin American countries. It engages in the exploration, development, drilling, and production of oil and natural gas reserves. The company was formerly known as GeoPark Holdings Limited and changed its name to GeoPark Limited in May 2009. GeoPark Limited was founded in 2002 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GeoPark Ltd reported revenue of $493M in FY2025 versus $689M in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was $49.7M in FY2025, compounding −5.1%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- GeoPark (GPRK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Geopark Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- GeoPark (GPRK) Q1 2026 Earnings Transcript
- Geopark Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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