Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $1.0B · ISIN US3932221043
What is Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc really worth?
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc
GPRE · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 112% above our fair value of $7.07.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −12.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.72 to $10.55). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.30 – $43.86 · fair‑value band $3.72 – $10.55 · the $14.96 price screens above the $7.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc (GPRE) currently trades at $14.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.07, implying the stock looks roughly 111.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $9.40 per share, and 0 of the 11 models we run sit above the $14.96 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $7.21, and 11 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of −0.8%. Revenue declined 25.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −1.9%. Net debt stands at $326M. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.72 (bear case) to $10.55 (bull case); at $14.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 179% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −53%, GPRE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($9.40) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil.
Full company description
Green Plains Inc. produces low-carbon fuels in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Ethanol Production, and Agribusiness and Energy Services. The company produces, stores, and transports ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil. It is also involved in the grain procurement and commodity marketing businesses; and marketing ethanol for a third-party producer, as well as buys and sells ethanol, distiller grains, renewable corn oil, grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. In addition, the company provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Green Plains Renewable Energy Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.8B in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$121M in FY2025.
GPRE screens 112% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Basic Industries Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alto Ingredients vs. Green Plains: Which Ethanol Stock Is Better?
- Green Plains, Liberty Energy, Nabors Industries, Centrus Energy, and Oceaneering Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
Peer Group
Chemicals · 339 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 | 49.50 SAR | 18.13 SAR | −63% |
| A. Schulman, Inc SLMNP | $849.00 | $203.64 | −76% |
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥24.49 | ¥20.17 | −18% |
| Dow Inc DOW | $30.51 | $21.03 | −31% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥41.32 | ¥21.62 | −48% |
| Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 | ¥13.76 | ¥2.39 | −83% |
| Zangge Mining Company 000408 | ¥78.04 | ¥20.99 | −73% |
| Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 | ¥52.53 | ¥16.17 | −69% |
| PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT | 1,855 IDR | 1,584 IDR | −15% |
| Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 | ¥18.87 | ¥17.09 | −9% |
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