Dow Inc (DOW) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · US · Market cap $21.8B · ISIN US2605571031

What is Dow Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
• The model range is unusually wide ($20.60 to $63.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.83 – $55.65 · fair‑value band $20.60 – $63.52 · the $30.36 price screens below the $42.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

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Analysis

Dow Inc (DOW) currently trades at $30.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.06, implying the stock looks roughly 27.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $24.83 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $30.36 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.88, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Dow Inc generated revenue of $39.3B at a net margin of −7.2%. Revenue declined 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −15.3%. Net debt stands at $15.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $20.60 (bear case) to $63.52 (bull case); at $30.36, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 39%, DOW screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($24.83) versus Asset-Based ($14.88). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (69).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.

Full company description

Dow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. The company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Dow Inc reported revenue of $40.0B in FY2025 versus $55.0B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.6B in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Chemicals · 341 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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