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Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · SA · Market cap 149B SAR (≈ $39.6B) · ISIN SA0007879121

What is Saudi Basic Industries Corp really worth?

SB Saudi Basic Industries Corp 2010 · SR
Price49.44 SAR
Fair Value36.26 SAR
Upside−26.7%
Quality47/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 36% above our fair value of 36.26 SAR.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.1 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -21.7% net margin
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 16/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 2 out of 100

For context

·6.07% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range 25.64 SAR – 46.88 SAR

Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026

From 15 valuation models · updated 15 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from 18.13 SAR to 36.26 SAR (+100.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −0.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (46.88 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (25.64 SAR to 46.88 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

111.47 SAR 43.18 SAR Fair Value 36.26 SAR Feb 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 43.18 SAR – 111.47 SAR · fair‑value band 25.64 SAR – 46.88 SAR · the 49.44 SAR price screens above the 36.26 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) currently trades at 49.44 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 36.26 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 36.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 40.13 SAR per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the 49.44 SAR price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 13.05 SAR, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Saudi Basic Industries Corp generated revenue of 113B SAR at a net margin of −21.7%. Revenue declined 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at 9.3B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 25.64 SAR (bear case) to 46.88 SAR (bull case); at 49.44 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −27%, 2010 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 29.42 SAR 40.13 SAR 59.96 SAR 80
Growth DCF 30.69 SAR 41.08 SAR 58.87 SAR 79
5Y EBITDA Exit 32.67 SAR 48.03 SAR 68.39 SAR 75
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 29.42 SAR 40.13 SAR 59.96 SAR 80
5Y Revenue Exit 20.43 SAR 26.84 SAR 36.12 SAR 73
5Y EBITDA Exit 32.67 SAR 48.03 SAR 68.39 SAR 75
10Y Revenue Exit 23.39 SAR 28.49 SAR 33.76 SAR 68
10Y EBITDA Exit 31.18 SAR 41.59 SAR 52.70 SAR 70
Earnings-Based
EPV 11.50 SAR 13.05 SAR 14.42 SAR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 29.46 SAR 32.25 SAR 36.49 SAR 69
DDM Multi-Stage 29.46 SAR 36.96 SAR 47.48 SAR 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 18.07 SAR 23.38 SAR 28.68 SAR 66
EV/EBITDA 40.20 SAR 52.88 SAR 65.57 SAR 67
EV/Revenue 15.95 SAR 21.86 SAR 27.77 SAR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 21.45 SAR 28.75 SAR 42.91 SAR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 30.69 SAR 41.08 SAR 58.87 SAR 79
Rev-Margin DCF 20.43 SAR 27.48 SAR 36.34 SAR 74
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 11.50 SAR 13.05 SAR 14.42 SAR 72

Widest divergence: DCF Models (40.13 SAR) versus Earnings-Based (13.05 SAR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 1.31 TTM
EPS (TTM) −0.1900 SAR
Dividend yield 6.1%
Net margin −22.1% FY2025
Return on equity 0.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 5.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 113B SAR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −10.6% 3y avg −14.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −54.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 8.4B SAR FY2025
Net debt 9.3B SAR FY2025 · ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation manufactures, markets, and distributes chemicals, polymers, plastics, and agri-nutrients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China, the Americas, Europe, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Petrochemicals and Agri-Nutrients.

Full company description

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation manufactures, markets, and distributes chemicals, polymers, plastics, and agri-nutrients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, China, the Americas, Europe, Africa, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Petrochemicals and Agri-Nutrients. It provides chemical products from hydrocarbon feedstock, including methane, ethane, propane, butane, and light naphtha; and olefins, methanol, aromatics, glycols, carbon dioxide, and methyl tert-butyl ether. The company also offers polyethylene products, including linear low-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, and high-density polyethylene; polypropylene products, such as homo, random, and impact polypropylene, as well as polypropylene compounds, homo polymer, random copolymer, impact copolymer, and specialty automotive grades; specialties products comprising resins, compounds and copolymers, and various thermosets and additives under the NORYL, ULTEM, EXTEM, and SILTEM brands; and polycarbonate, polyvinyl chloride, polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, and acrylonitrile butadiene styrene. In addition, it provides a range of fertilizer products, including urea, ammonia, and phosphate, as well as compound fertilizers. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Basic Industries Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Aramco Chemicals Company.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Saudi Basic Industries Corp reported revenue of 117B SAR in FY2025 versus 175B SAR in FY2021, a compound −9.7%/yr. Reported net income was −25.8B SAR in FY2025.

Growth Quality 23/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
117B SAR
Latest YoY
−16.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.6%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −9.7%/yr
FY21 175B SAR
FY22 183B SAR
FY23 142B SAR
FY24 140B SAR
FY25 117B SAR
Net income
FY21 23.1B SAR
FY22 16.5B SAR
FY23 −2.8B SAR
FY24 1.5B SAR
FY25 −25.8B SAR

2010 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with A. Schulman, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Saudi Basic Industries Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2010

Peer Group

Chemicals · 341 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −27% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −22% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth −11% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.17× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.31× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.35× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 4.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 22
PAST2 · sector 20
HEALTH92 · sector 94
DIVIDEND100 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).

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A. Schulman, Inc SLMNP $849.00 $203.64 −76%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥24.49 ¥20.17 −18%
Dow Inc DOW $30.51 $21.03 −31%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥41.32 ¥21.62 −48%
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 ¥13.76 ¥2.39 −83%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥78.04 ¥20.99 −73%
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥52.53 ¥16.17 −69%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,855 IDR 1,584 IDR −15%
Hengli Petrochemical Co 600346 ¥18.87 ¥17.09 −9%
LG Chem, Ltd 051910 263,000 KRW 587,755 KRW +123%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 36.26 SAR versus a price of 49.44 SAR, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2010?
Our model-based fair value for Saudi Basic Industries Corp is 36.26 SAR (as of Aug 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 49.44 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2010?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Saudi Basic Industries Corp (2010)?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 113B SAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 21, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2010?
The net profit margin of Saudi Basic Industries Corp is about −21.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Saudi Basic Industries Corp pay a dividend?
Saudi Basic Industries Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.07% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 21, 2026).
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