Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.1B · ISIN US3138551086
What is Federal Signal Corporation really worth?
Federal Signal Corporation
FSS · US
A solid business, but trading 97% above our fair value of $59.53.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −11.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($95.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($35.33 to $95.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.22 – $133.86 · fair‑value band $35.33 – $95.76 · the $117.16 price screens above the $59.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) currently trades at $117.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.53, implying the stock looks roughly 96.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $73.66 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $117.16 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.77, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Federal Signal Corporation generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 11.6%. Revenue grew 34.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.5%. Net debt stands at $531M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $35.33 (bear case) to $95.76 (bull case); at $117.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −49%, FSS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.53 per share, which is 4.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($73.66) versus Dividend Discount ($7.77). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Federal Signal Corporation designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Environmental Solutions Group, and Safety and Security Systems Group.
Full company description
Federal Signal Corporation designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Environmental Solutions Group, and Safety and Security Systems Group. The company offers street sweepers, sewer cleaners, industrial vacuum loaders, safe-digging trucks, dump truck bodies, and trailers, as well as waterblasting, road-marking, line-removal, metal extraction support equipment, and multi-purpose maintenance vehicles under the ELGIN, VACTOR, GUZZLER, TRUVAC, WESTECH, JETSTREAM, BLASTERS, MARK RITE LINES, HOG, NEW WAY, TRACKLESS, OX BODIES, CRYSTEEL, J-CRAFT, DURACLASS, RUGBY, TRAVIS, OSW, NTE, WTB, GROUND FORCE, TOWHAUL, BUCKS, AND SWITCH-N-GO brands; and provides refuse and recycling collection vehicles through a dealer network or direct sales to service customers. It is also involved in sale of parts, service and repair, equipment rentals, and training. The company also provides systems for community alerting, emergency vehicles, first responder interoperable communications, and industrial communications; public safety equipment, such as vehicle lightbars and sirens, industrial signaling equipment, public warning systems, and general alarm/public address systems under the Federal Signal, Federal Signal VAMA, and Victor brand names through wholesalers, distributors, independent manufacturer representatives, original equipment manufacturers, and direct sales force, as well as independent foreign distributors. Federal Signal Corporation was founded in 1901 and is based in Downers Grove, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Federal Signal Corporation reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2021, a compound +15.8%/yr. Reported net income was $247M in FY2025, compounding +25.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
FSS screens 97% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here is Why Growth Investors Should Buy Federal Signal (FSS) Now
- Here Are Monday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Apple, Dave, Etsy, Federal Signal, Mobileye Global, Netskope, Okta, Shopify, Workd
- BLBD vs. FSS: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- Is Federal Signal (FSS) Outperforming Other Auto-Tires-Trucks Stocks This Year?
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $800.25 | $307.83 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $622.66 | $182.29 | −71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 351.40 | kr 288.08 | −18% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $122.45 | $94.80 | −23% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €45.73 | €47.70 | +4% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 272.80 | kr 144.14 | −47% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €72.10 | €123.44 | +71% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥19.06 | ¥20.84 | +9% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €37.78 | €52.60 | +39% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €16.75 | €10.73 | −36% |
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