Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $2.1B · ISIN US2925541029

What is Encore Capital Group Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($118.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $27.13 – $103.74 · fair‑value band $118.07 – $196.78 · the $96.93 price screens below the $157.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Encore Capital Group Inc (ECPG) currently trades at $96.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $157.42, implying the stock looks roughly 38.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $166.93 per share, and 5 of the 9 models we run sit above the $96.93 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $30.86, and 4 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Encore Capital Group Inc generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 16.0%. Revenue grew 21.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 32.0%. Net debt stands at $4.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $118.07 (bear case) to $196.78 (bull case); at $96.93, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 172% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 62%, ECPG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $8.72 per share, which is 5.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($166.93) versus Asset-Based ($30.86). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (75).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide.

Full company description

Encore Capital Group, Inc., a specialty finance company, provides debt recovery solutions and other related services for consumers across financial assets worldwide. The company purchases portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables at discounts to face value, as well as manages them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and works toward financial recovery. It is also involved in the provision of debt servicing, such as early stage collection, business process outsourcing, and contingent collection services. In addition, the company engages in debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originator for non-performing loans. Further, it offers credit management services. Encore Capital Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Encore Capital Group Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.2%/yr. Reported net income was $257M in FY2025, compounding −7.5%/yr from FY2021.

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Peer Group

Credit Services · 324 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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