Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $10.0B · ISIN US2540671011
What is Dillard's, Inc. really worth?
Dillard's, Inc.
DDS · US
A strong business, but trading 22% above our fair value of $536.21.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +5.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $119.56 – $699.51 · fair‑value band $404.51 – $724.36 · the $652.07 price screens above the $536.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Dillard's, Inc. (DDS) currently trades at $652.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $536.21, implying the stock looks roughly 21.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $607.76 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the $652.07 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $76.41, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dillard's, Inc. generated revenue of $6.6B at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $304M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $404.51 (bear case) to $724.36 (bull case); at $652.07, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −18%, DDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $24.41 per share, which is 4.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($607.76) versus Asset-Based ($76.41). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. The company offers fashion apparel for men, women, and children; accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods through dillards.com, an Internet store and clearance centers.
Full company description
Dillard's, Inc. operates retail department stores in the southeastern, southwestern, and midwestern areas of the United States. The company offers fashion apparel for men, women, and children; accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings, and other consumer goods through dillards.com, an Internet store and clearance centers. It also engages in the general contracting construction activities, such as constructing and remodeling stores for the company. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Little Rock, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Dillard's, Inc. reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2026 versus $6.6B in FY2022, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was $571M in FY2026, compounding −9.8%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +0.0 % · buybacks/dilution +10.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
DDS screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Falabella S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dillard's Stock Rises 11.4% in 3 Months: Is It Time to Buy or Wait?
- Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Dillard's Stock Post Q2 Earnings?
- Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights: Dillard's and Lenovo
- 2 Top Stocks to Buy After Crushing Earnings Expectations: Dillard's (DDS) and Lenovo (LNVGY)
Peer Group
Department Stores · 121 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Department Stores median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Department Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falabella S.A FALABELLA | 6,380 CLP | 8,005 CLP | +25% |
| 99 Speed Mart Retail Holdings 5326 | 3.65 MYR | 1.59 MYR | −56% |
| Cencosud S.A CENCOSUD | 1,949 CLP | 2,425 CLP | +24% |
| Macy's, Inc M | $21.93 | $42.68 | +95% |
| Vishal Mega Mart Limited VMM | ₹107.00 | ₹30.46 | −72% |
| Central Retail Corporation CRC | 27.50 THB | 20.89 THB | −24% |
| SHINSEGAE Inc 004170 | 424,000 KRW | 177,841 KRW | −58% |
| Lotte Shopping Co 023530 | 96,700 KRW | 76,636 KRW | −21% |
| PT Daya Intiguna Yasa Tbk MDIY | 940.00 IDR | 968.76 IDR | +3% |
| PT. Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk MAPI | 1,510 IDR | 2,957 IDR | +96% |
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