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California Resources Corp (CRC) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · US · Market cap $4.6B · ISIN US13057Q3056

What is California Resources Corp really worth?

CR California Resources Corp logo California Resources Corp CRC · US
Price$53.42
Fair Value$57.22
Upside+7.1%
Quality46/100

Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value of $57.22.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.5 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -3.2% net margin · fiscal year 2025 10.1%
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·3.00% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range $40.25 – $71.52

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price +1.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$69.66 $22.39 Fair Value $57.22 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.39 – $69.66 · fair‑value band $40.25 – $71.52 · the $53.42 price screens below the $57.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

California Resources Corp (CRC) currently trades at $53.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $57.22, implying the stock looks roughly 6.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $60.09 per share, and 15 of the 26 models we run sit above the $53.42 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $20.71, and 11 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, California Resources Corp generated revenue of $3.5B at a net margin of −13.4%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −14.4%. Net debt stands at $1.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $40.25 (bear case) to $71.52 (bull case); at $53.42, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 7%, CRC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $51.03 $81.09 $123.64 79
Growth DCF $52.29 $79.33 $115.59 78
Owner Earnings $66.59 $103.95 $156.84 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $51.03 $81.09 $123.64 79
Owner Earnings $66.59 $103.95 $156.84 76
5Y Revenue Exit $30.97 $50.15 $73.59 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $52.53 $89.50 $131.50 74
5Y P/E Exit $34.53 $56.64 $78.93 70
10Y Revenue Exit $37.06 $55.74 $78.91 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $51.33 $82.10 $121.14 68
10Y P/E Exit $40.22 $60.09 $82.81 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $27.79 $76.09 $99.81 65
Lynch FV $15.08 $21.54 $28.00 61
PEG = 1.0 $15.08 $21.54 $28.00 57
EPV $60.02 $71.54 $81.48 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $13.45 $26.80 $40.58 67
DDM Multi-Stage $13.45 $20.71 $28.11 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $42.91 $57.22 $71.52 63
P/S Multiple $36.52 $48.69 $60.86 58
P/B Multiple $52.11 $69.48 $86.85 55
EV/EBIT $58.98 $82.97 $106.95 65
EV/EBITDA $62.33 $87.42 $112.52 67
EV/Revenue $21.13 $35.73 $50.34 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $20.68 $27.71 $41.36 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $52.29 $79.33 $115.59 78
Rev-Margin DCF $30.97 $50.98 $73.51 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $35.73 $39.40 $55.72 76
ROIC Compounder $63.03 $81.03 $101.75 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $35.51 $50.73 $65.96 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($60.09) versus Dividend Discount ($20.71). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 1.32 TTM
EPS (TTM) $−1.23
Dividend yield 3.0%
Net margin 10.1% FY2025
Return on equity −14.4% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 20.1% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 46.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $3.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.7% 3y avg +3.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −61.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $543M FY2025
Net debt $1.2B FY2025 · ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 21
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 32
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas to california refineries, marketers, and other purchasers.

Full company description

California Resources Corporation operates as an independent energy and carbon management company in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Oil and Natural Gas, and Carbon Management. It explores, develops, and produces crude oil, oil condensate, natural gas liquids and natural gas to california refineries, marketers, and other purchasers. The company also provides Carbon TerraVault which builds, installs, operates, and maintains CO2 capture equipment, transportation assets, and storage facilities. In addition, it owns and operates power generation facilities, as well as smaller gas-fired power plants used to generate power for oil and natural gas operations. The company was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Long Beach, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

California Resources Corp reported revenue of $3.6B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $363M in FY2025, compounding −12.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.6B
Latest YoY
+21.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+17.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−1.1% (−4.1 + 3.0)
Revenue +8.9%/yr
FY21 $2.6B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $2.8B
FY24 $3.0B
FY25 $3.6B
Net income −12.2%/yr
FY21 $612M
FY22 $524M
FY23 $564M
FY24 $376M
FY25 $363M

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California Resources Corp · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "California Resources Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CRC

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Above median
Fair Value upside +7% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 47% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 33% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.0% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.35× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.25× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.23× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 8.5× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 0.37× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE43 · sector 9
FUTURE100 · sector 7
PAST0 · sector 9
HEALTH83 · sector 87
DIVIDEND59 · sector 70

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥32.85 ¥32.55 −1%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.03 C$44.78 −35%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.35 $132.20 −8%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $59.17 $30.06 −49%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $200.52 $105.24 −48%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $47.35 $27.06 −43%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 −36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.57 $42.85 −21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $366.50 $77.26 −79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is California Resources Corp (CRC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $57.22 versus a price of $53.42, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CRC?
Our model-based fair value for California Resources Corp is $57.22 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.42.
What is the quality score of CRC?
California Resources Corp has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of California Resources Corp (CRC)?
California Resources Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CRC?
The net profit margin of California Resources Corp is about −13.4%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does California Resources Corp pay a dividend?
California Resources Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.00% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
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