Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $6.6B · ISIN US6742152076
What is Chord Energy Corp really worth?
Chord Energy Corp
CHRD · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 387% above our fair value of $30.39.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from $22.09 to $30.39 (+37.6%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +8.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($39.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($21.27 to $39.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $50.92 – $167.63 · fair‑value band $21.27 – $39.51 · the $148.00 price screens above the $30.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Chord Energy Corp (CHRD) currently trades at $148.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.39, implying the stock looks roughly 387.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $135.80 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $148.00 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $13.42, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chord Energy Corp generated revenue of $5.0B at a net margin of −1.3%. Revenue grew 38.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.8%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.27 (bear case) to $39.51 (bull case); at $148.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −79%, CHRD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($135.80) versus Multiples ($13.42). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. The company engages in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin.
Full company description
Chord Energy Corporation operates as an independent exploration and production company in the United States. The company engages in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin. It sells its products to refiners, marketers, and other purchasers that have access to pipeline and rail facilities. The company was formerly known as Oasis Petroleum Inc. and changed its name to Chord Energy Corporation in July 2022. Chord Energy Corporation was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chord Energy Corp reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +32.6%/yr. Reported net income was $44.5M in FY2025, compounding −38.9%/yr from FY2021.
CHRD screens 387% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- U.S. Shale E&P Stocks Q2 Results: Benchmarking Chord Energy (NASDAQ:CHRD)
- Solaris Energy Infrastructure, SM Energy, and Chord Energy Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know
- 5 Insightful Analyst Questions From Chord Energy’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Chord Energy (CHRD) Stock Looks Undervalued Despite Strong 153% Returns
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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