The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.1B · ISIN US1630721017
What is The Cheesecake Factory really worth?
The Cheesecake Factory
CAKE · US
A solid business, but trading 293% above our fair value of $27.25.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $35.14 to $27.25 (−22.5%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($62.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($27.25 to $62.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.76 – $117.29 · fair‑value band $27.25 – $62.85 · the $107.18 price screens above the $27.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) currently trades at $107.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.25, implying the stock looks roughly 293.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $50.78 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $107.18 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.89, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Cheesecake Factory generated revenue of $3.8B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 5.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.3%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.25 (bear case) to $62.85 (bull case); at $107.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 151% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −75%, CAKE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.56 per share, which is 5.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($50.78) versus Asset-Based ($5.89). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. It operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors.
Full company description
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates and licenses restaurants in the United States and Canada. It operates bakeries that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company operates restaurants under the brands comprising The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Cheesecake Factory reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $148M in FY2025, compounding +19.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CAKE screens 293% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Q2 Sit-Down Dining Earnings Review: First Prize Goes to The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE)
- Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Up 14.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
- The Cheesecake Factory to Present at the Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Conference
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
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