Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Bayan Resources Tbk is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
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Energy · ID · Market cap 511T IDR (≈ $51.1B) · ISIN ID1000111701
At a glance
BRBayan Resources TbkBYAN · JK
Price13,100 IDR
Fair Value3,526 IDR
Upside−73.1%
Quality76/100
A strong business, but trading 272% above our fair value of 3,526 IDR.
As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Bayan Resources Tbk is 3,526 IDR per share against a price of 13,100 IDR, so the fair value sits 73% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +19.4 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.4% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
✓Wide moat 89/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: MediumRange 2,644 IDR to 6,042 IDR
Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from 3,542 IDR to 3,526 IDR (−0.5%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.
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What matters now
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (6,042 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
A fairly wide model range (2,644 IDR to 6,042 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 904.89 IDR – 21,630 IDR · fair‑value band 2,644 IDR – 6,042 IDR · the 13,100 IDR price screens above the 3,526 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) currently trades at 13,100 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,526 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 271.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 4,968 IDR per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the 13,100 IDR price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 801.29 IDR, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bayan Resources Tbk generated revenue of $3.4B at a net margin of 22.1%. Revenue declined 7.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $575M. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026
Scenario range: 2,644 IDR (bear) to 6,042 IDR (bull), the price of 13,100 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −73%, BYAN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (276.40 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence4,808 IDR7,212 IDR10,737 IDR80
Growth DCF4,968 IDR7,051 IDR10,256 IDR78
Owner Earnings4,167 IDR6,250 IDR9,295 IDR76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence4,808 IDR7,212 IDR10,737 IDR80
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio33.0
P/S ratio7.39P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)397.19 IDRprice ÷ EPS = P/E 33.0
Net margin22.4%FY2025
Return on equity27.9%TTM
Return on assets (EBIT)50.8%avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin29.7%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$3.4BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)−7.7%3y avg −10.4%
EPS growth (YoY)−12.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$823MFY2025
Net cash$575MFY2025
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality76/100
Of which business quality 76
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Profitability84
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance82
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the open cut mining and sale of coal in Indonesia. It operates through Coal and Non-Coal segments. The company produces high calorific value bituminous coal, sub-bituminous low-sulphur, and low-ash coal products.
Full company description
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the open cut mining and sale of coal in Indonesia. It operates through Coal and Non-Coal segments. The company produces high calorific value bituminous coal, sub-bituminous low-sulphur, and low-ash coal products. It is also involved in the provision of mining contractor, coal transshipment, electric power supply, and trading services, as well as operation of oil palm plantation. PT Bayan Resources Tbk. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bayan Resources Tbk reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.4%/yr. Reported net income was $758M in FY2025, compounding −11.1%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.4B
Latest YoY
−1.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−10.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−26.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+18.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+18.2%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 18.2% vs 10Y 38.7%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20.4% (2020) → 29.3% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop117% (2013) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in USD
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How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−74% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)35% · Top 25%
Return on assets20% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)33.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B19.85× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)14.41× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF62.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA41.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.63× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Bayan Resources Tbk deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+24.6 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+19.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.6 %
FCF yield on price1.88 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models11.5 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 13
FUTURE100· sector 0
PAST100· sector 22
HEALTH100· sector 93
DIVIDEND0· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
CoalOil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,526 IDR versus a price of 13,100 IDR, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BYAN?
Our model-based fair value for Bayan Resources Tbk is 3,526 IDR (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13,100 IDR.
What is the quality score of BYAN?
Bayan Resources Tbk has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,526 IDR (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,644 IDR, optimistic scenario 6,042 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bayan Resources Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,526 IDR, about −73% upside versus a price of 13,100 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2,644 IDR, optimistic scenario 6,042 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Bayan Resources Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BYAN?
The net profit margin of Bayan Resources Tbk is about 22.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 22.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bayan Resources Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +24.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BYAN use?
Our models discount Bayan Resources Tbk at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bayan Resources Tbk it is 3,526 IDR per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of 13,100 IDR. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bayan Resources Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, BYAN trades above its calculated fair value: price 13,100 IDR, fair value 3,526 IDR, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BYAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13,100 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,526 IDR). For Bayan Resources Tbk the two are 9,574 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bayan Resources Tbk worth?
The market values Bayan Resources Tbk at about 511T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is 13,100 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 3,526 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BYAN?
Our models span a range for Bayan Resources Tbk: cautious scenario 2,644 IDR, base 3,526 IDR, optimistic 6,042 IDR per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price 13,100 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BYAN?
Bayan Resources Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.0 (as of Sep 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,526 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 19.9, P/S 14.4, EV/EBITDA 41.6.
What is the PEG ratio of BYAN?
The PEG ratio of Bayan Resources Tbk is 0.63 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bayan Resources Tbk (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity 34.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BYAN from its 52-week high?
Bayan Resources Tbk trades at 13,100 IDR, about 34% below its 52-week high of 19,975 IDR and 44% above the low of 9,075 IDR (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,526 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bayan Resources Tbk?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bayan Resources Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price 13,100 IDR, calculated fair value 3,526 IDR (−73%), Quality Score 76/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BYAN calculated?
We run Bayan Resources Tbk through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,526 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Bayan Resources Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
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