China Shenhua Energy Co (601088) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CN · Market cap 911B CNY (≈ $136B) · ISIN CNE100000767
What is China Shenhua Energy Co really worth?
A solid business, but trading 36% above our fair value of ¥34.97.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +10.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥45.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (¥24.48 to ¥45.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥11.95 – ¥49.52 · fair‑value band ¥24.48 – ¥45.28 · the ¥47.61 price screens above the ¥34.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
China Shenhua Energy Co (601088) currently trades at ¥47.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥34.97, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of ¥54.49 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥47.61 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥14.97, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, China Shenhua Energy Co generated revenue of 296B CNY at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 1.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 111B CNY. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥24.48 (bear case) to ¥45.28 (bull case); at ¥47.61, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −27%, 601088 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.3941 per share, which is 1.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (¥54.49) versus Asset-Based (¥14.97). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations.
Full company description
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations. The Coal Operations segment produces and sells coal from surface and underground mines. The Power Operations segment generates and sells electric power to power grid companies. This segment also generates electric power through coal, thermal, water, photovoltaic, and gas. The Railway Operations segment provides railway transportation services. The Port Operations segment offers loading, transportation, and storage services. The Shipping Operations segment provides shipment transportation services. The Coal Chemical Operations segment produces methanol; and processes and sells polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as other by-products. It is also involved in coal-to-olefins businesses. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Shenhua Energy Co reported revenue of 295B CNY in FY2025 versus 336B CNY in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 52.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
601088 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with PT Bayan Resources Tbk., →
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 99 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 15,325 IDR | 3,542 IDR | −77% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹2,965 | ₹891.11 | −70% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥25.08 | ¥23.90 | −5% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥21.60 | ¥13.24 | −39% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹417.85 | ₹464.01 | +11% |
| 533278 533278 | ₹406.50 | ₹660.78 | +63% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥13.93 | ¥13.91 | +0% |
| PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA | 1,145 IDR | 352.75 IDR | −69% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥26.48 | ¥20.72 | −22% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.27 | ¥7.20 | −56% |
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