Bellway PLC (BWY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 2.2B GBX · ISIN GB0000904986
What is Bellway PLC really worth?
A solid business, trading 22% below our fair value of £26.92.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +0.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (£20.23 to £38.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £13.43 – £31.82 · fair‑value band £20.23 – £38.45 · the £21.00 price screens below the £26.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Bellway PLC (BWY) currently trades at £21.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £26.92, implying the stock looks roughly 22.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £30.02 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the £21.00 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £9.40, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bellway PLC generated revenue of £2.9B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. Net debt stands at £316M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £20.23 (bear case) to £38.45 (bull case); at £21.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 28%, BWY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.6000 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (£30.02) versus Dividend Discount (£9.40). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Bellway p.l.c., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United Kingdom. It builds and sells homes ranging from one-bedroom apartments to six-bedroom family homes, as well as provides homes to housing associations for social housing. It offers homes under Bellway, Ashberry, and Bellway London brands.
Full company description
Bellway p.l.c., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding business in the United Kingdom. It builds and sells homes ranging from one-bedroom apartments to six-bedroom family homes, as well as provides homes to housing associations for social housing. It offers homes under Bellway, Ashberry, and Bellway London brands. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bellway PLC reported revenue of 2.8B GBX in FY2025 versus 3.1B GBX in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 158M GBX in FY2025, compounding −20.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.26 | $213.23 | +47% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $126.75 | $190.17 | +50% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.11 | $116.80 | +37% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,396 | $7,821 | +22% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $146.22 | $221.32 | +51% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.45 | $136.88 | +89% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $237.70 | $209.51 | −12% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $71.06 | $102.94 | +45% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | −20% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $598.38 | $421.10 | −30% |
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