Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $2.4B · ISIN US0953061068
What is Blue Bird Corp really worth?
Blue Bird Corp
BLBD · US
A solid business, trading 20% below our fair value of $79.46.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −18.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($54.13 to $98.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.37 – $81.50 · fair‑value band $54.13 – $98.23 · the $63.66 price screens below the $79.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Blue Bird Corp (BLBD) currently trades at $63.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $79.46, implying the stock looks roughly 19.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $86.81 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the $63.66 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $34.95, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Blue Bird Corp generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue declined 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 54.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $139M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $54.13 (bear case) to $98.23 (bull case); at $63.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 25%, BLBD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.79 per share, which is 4.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($86.81) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5300). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts.
Full company description
Blue Bird Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. It offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative power options through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses, as well as diesel engines. The company also sells replacement bus parts; and provides extended warranties related to its products. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through drop ship and a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; independent service centers; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Blue Bird Corp reported revenue of $1.5B in FY2025 versus $684M in FY2021, a compound +21.3%/yr. Reported net income was $128M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +4.3 % · buybacks/dilution −3.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $800.25 | $307.83 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $622.66 | $182.29 | −71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 351.40 | kr 288.08 | −18% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $122.45 | $94.80 | −23% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €45.73 | €47.70 | +4% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 272.80 | kr 144.14 | −47% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €72.10 | €123.44 | +71% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥19.06 | ¥20.84 | +9% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €37.78 | €52.60 | +39% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €16.75 | €10.73 | −36% |
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