The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 3.1B GBX · ISIN GB00BLJNXL82
What is The Berkeley Group Holdings plc really worth?
A solid business, trading 39% below our fair value of £57.01.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £60.16 to £57.01 (−5.2%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (£38.28). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (£38.28 to £77.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £29.96 – £52.81 · fair‑value band £38.28 – £77.22 · the £34.56 price screens below the £57.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc (BKG) currently trades at £34.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £57.01, implying the stock looks roughly 39.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £69.06 per share, and 21 of the 25 models we run sit above the £34.56 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £26.03, and 4 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Berkeley Group Holdings plc generated revenue of £2.4B at a net margin of 15.3%. Revenue declined 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £359M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £38.28 (bear case) to £77.22 (bull case); at £34.56, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at 65%, BKG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 4 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £1.28 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£69.06) versus Earnings-Based (£26.03). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led and mixed-use property development and ancillary activities; and land selling activities. It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands.
Full company description
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, builds homes and neighbourhoods in the United Kingdom. The company engages in the residential-led and mixed-use property development and ancillary activities; and land selling activities. It operates under the Berkeley, St Edward, St George, St James, St Joseph, and St William brands. The Berkeley Group Holdings plc was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cobham, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The Berkeley Group Holdings plc reported revenue of 2.4B GBX in FY2026 versus 2.3B GBX in FY2022, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 318M GBX in FY2026, compounding −9.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +0.7 % · buybacks/dilution +3.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Residential Construction · 65 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Residential Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Residential Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| D.R. Horton, Inc DHI | $145.26 | $213.23 | +47% |
| PulteGroup, Inc PHM | $126.75 | $190.17 | +50% |
| Lennar Corporation LEN | $85.11 | $116.80 | +37% |
| NVR, Inc NVR | $6,396 | $7,821 | +22% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc TOL | $146.22 | $221.32 | +51% |
| Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC | $72.45 | $136.88 | +89% |
| Installed Building Products, Inc IBP | $237.70 | $209.51 | −12% |
| Meritage Homes Corporation MTH | $71.06 | $102.94 | +45% |
| Champion Homes, Inc SKY | $93.88 | $75.12 | −20% |
| Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO | $598.38 | $421.10 | −30% |
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