Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $111M
Bridger Aerospace Group
BAER · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $1.22 to $2.01 (+64.8%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −34.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 61% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.11 to $2.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.07 – $22.08 · fair‑value band $1.11 – $2.51 · the $1.25 price screens below the $2.01 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Bridger Aerospace Group (BAER) currently trades at $1.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.01, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bridger Aerospace Group generated revenue of $116M at a net margin of -10.1%. Revenue declined 45.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -31.6%. Net debt stands at $213M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.11 (bear case) to $2.51 (bull case); at $1.25, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 61%, BAER screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($3.63) versus Asset-Based ($0.7500). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States.
Full company description
Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. provides aerial wildfire surveillance, relief and suppression, and aerial firefighting services in the United States. The company offers fire suppression services, such as aerial firefighting support for ground crews by operating the Viking CL-415EAF (Super Scooper) aircraft to drop water as part of the initial and direct attack to slow, contain, and extinguish wildfires. It also provides aerial surveillance services via manned (Air Attack) aircraft for fire suppression over an incident and providing tactical coordination with the incident commander, and decision-makers rapid, current intelligence from useful aerial vantage points, giving access to information to support ground firefighters and safety for the public. In addition, the company offers maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) that provides maintenance and repair services for return-to-service upgrades of the Spanish scoopers, as well as airframe modification and integration solutions for governmental and commercial customers. Further, it operates an aircraft fleet of nineteen planes. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Belgrade, Montana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bridger Aerospace Group reported revenue of $123M in FY2025 versus $39.4M in FY2021, a compound +32.9%/yr. Reported net income was $4.1M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 360.50 | kr 269.97 | -25% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €9.33 | €12.40 | +33% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $166.11 | $127.80 | -23% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 147.90 | kr 186.34 | +26% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.46 | ¥31.47 | +91% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $192.04 | $116.42 | -39% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.31 | $16.68 | +128% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $113.96 | $121.18 | +6% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $95.12 | $72.32 | -24% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $31.45 | $25.50 | -19% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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