AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $26.3B · ISIN US0534841012
What is AvalonBay Communities Inc really worth?
AvalonBay Communities Inc
AVB · US
A solid business, trading 46% below our fair value of $125.31.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 16, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 16, 2026, revised from $126.12 to $125.31 (−0.6%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −64.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($70.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($70.98 to $156.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $65.90 – $223.17 · fair‑value band $70.98 – $156.63 · the $68.14 price screens below the $125.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
Analysis
AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) currently trades at $68.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.31, implying the stock looks roughly 45.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $48.77 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $68.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.17, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, AvalonBay Communities Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 37.3%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. Net debt stands at $9.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.98 (bear case) to $156.63 (bull case); at $68.14, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 84%, AVB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7038 per share, which is 0.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($48.77) versus Asset-Based ($20.17). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
Notify me when AVB reaches fair value
Put AVB on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of …
Full company description
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 320 communities containing 98,694 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 24 communities were under development. AvalonBay Communities, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 in Maryland and is based in Arlington, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AvalonBay Communities Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AVB: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Is Back In The Spotlight
- The Bull Case For AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Could Change Following Index Exit And Vivmark Overhaul - Learn Why
Peer Group
REIT - Residential · 45 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Residential stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| EQR EQR | $66.79 | $36.19 | −46% |
| Essex Property Trust, Inc ESS | $284.03 | $177.90 | −37% |
| Invitation Homes INVH | $29.78 | $15.91 | −47% |
| Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc MAA | $129.36 | $65.28 | −50% |
| Sun Communities, Inc SUI | $118.34 | $121.64 | +3% |
| UDR, Inc UDR | $37.51 | $19.76 | −47% |
| American Homes 4 Rent (AMH or the General Partner) AMH | $34.56 | $21.07 | −39% |
| Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc ELS | $65.44 | $20.93 | −68% |
| Camden Property Trust, an S&P 500 Company CPT | $105.96 | $41.51 | −61% |
| Millrose Properties, Inc MRP | $31.72 | $41.87 | +32% |
Compare AvalonBay Communities Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Real Estate stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of AVB?
What is the quality score of AVB?
What is the revenue of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
What is the net profit margin of AVB?
Does AvalonBay Communities Inc pay a dividend?
Watch AvalonBay Communities Inc in the live analysis
One click puts AvalonBay Communities Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.