Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $18.9B · ISIN US2971781057
What is Essex Property Trust Inc really worth?
Essex Property Trust Inc
ESS · US
A solid business, but trading 57% above our fair value of $177.90.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −3.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($222.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($81.16 to $222.38). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $172.99 – $308.18 · fair‑value band $81.16 – $222.38 · the $278.65 price screens above the $177.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Essex Property Trust Inc (ESS) currently trades at $278.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $177.90, implying the stock looks roughly 56.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $193.14 per share, and 2 of the 14 models we run sit above the $278.65 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $57.77, and 12 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Essex Property Trust Inc generated revenue of $2.0B at a net margin of 29.1%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.6%. Net debt stands at $6.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $81.16 (bear case) to $222.38 (bull case); at $278.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −36%, ESS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($193.14) versus Asset-Based ($57.77). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Essex Property Trust, Inc., an S&P 500 company, is a fully integrated real estate investment trust. The firm acquires, develops, redevelops, and manages multifamily residential properties in selected West Coast markets.
Full company description
Essex Property Trust, Inc., an S&P 500 company, is a fully integrated real estate investment trust. The firm acquires, develops, redevelops, and manages multifamily residential properties in selected West Coast markets. Essex currently has ownership interests in 259 apartment communities comprising over 63,000 apartment homes with an additional property in active development. Essex Property Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 1971 in Maryland and is based in San Mateo, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Essex Property Trust Inc reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was $672M in FY2025, compounding +8.3%/yr from FY2021.
ESS screens 57% overvalued. Compare with EQR →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why Is Essex Property Trust (ESS) Down 0.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Essex Property Trust Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?
- Zacks Industry Outlook Essex Property, Equity LifeStyle and American Homes
- Essex Property Trust (ESS) Raises Guidance, Is The Stock Still Cheap?
Peer Group
REIT - Residential · 45 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Residential stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| EQR EQR | $66.79 | $36.19 | −46% |
| Invitation Homes INVH | $29.78 | $15.91 | −47% |
| Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc MAA | $129.36 | $65.28 | −50% |
| Sun Communities, Inc SUI | $118.34 | $121.64 | +3% |
| UDR, Inc UDR | $37.51 | $19.76 | −47% |
| American Homes 4 Rent (AMH or the General Partner) AMH | $34.56 | $21.07 | −39% |
| Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc ELS | $65.44 | $20.93 | −68% |
| Camden Property Trust, an S&P 500 Company CPT | $105.96 | $41.51 | −61% |
| Millrose Properties, Inc MRP | $31.72 | $41.87 | +32% |
| Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust CARUN | C$33.70 | C$21.86 | −35% |
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