Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IN · Market cap ₹925B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ₹124.10 to ₹118.01 (−4.9%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price +9.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹154.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (₹82.61 to ₹154.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹44.79 – ₹208.37 · fair‑value band ₹82.61 – ₹154.45 · the ₹171.64 price screens above the ₹118.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) currently trades at ₹171.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹118.01, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ashok Leyland Limited generated revenue of ₹564B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue grew 17.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.6%. Net debt stands at ₹577B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹82.61 (bear case) to ₹154.45 (bull case); at ₹171.64, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -31%, ASHOKLEY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹118.01) versus DCF Models (₹16.23). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ashok Leyland Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of commercial vehicles in India and internationally.
Full company description
Ashok Leyland Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of commercial vehicles in India and internationally. It offers buses; haulage and ICV trucks, as well as tractors and tippers; light commercial vehicles goods carriers and passenger, as well as small commercial vehicles goods carriers; and defense vehicles comprising logistics, high mobility, armored, and specialist vehicles. The company also provides power solutions, such as diesel generators, agriculture engines, industrial engines, and marine engines; spare parts; and vehicle and housing financing services. In addition, it trades in commercial vehicles; and offers manpower supply, air chartering, and IT services, as well as manufactures forgings and castings. Further, the company operates retail stores; and LeyKart, an e-commerce store for spare parts. The company was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Chennai, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Ashok Leyland Limited reported revenue of ₹561B in FY2026 versus ₹261B in FY2022, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹34.7B in FY2026.
of which total revenue +11.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ASHOKLEY screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $855.60 | $307.83 | -64% |
| Deere & Company DE | $619.77 | $182.29 | -71% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 344.00 | kr 288.08 | -16% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $131.06 | $94.80 | -28% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 254.50 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.91 | ¥20.84 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.25 | ¥11.79 | +43% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.42 | HK$53.57 | +29% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥29.82 | ¥42.00 | +41% |
| Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co 1157 | HK$6.96 | HK$11.25 | +62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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