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Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (3808) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$111B

SH Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 · HK
PriceHK$39.52
Fair ValueHK$53.57
Upside+35.6%
Quality58/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.79% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (13/15)
Narrow moat 40/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$39.86 – HK$67.27 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$53.51 to HK$53.57 (+0.1%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 36% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • Our model range runs from HK$39.86 (bear) to HK$67.27 (bull), base HK$53.57. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$47.56 HK$5.51 Fair Value HK$53.57 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.51 – HK$47.56 · fair‑value band HK$39.86 – HK$67.27 · the HK$39.52 price screens below the HK$53.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (3808) currently trades at HK$39.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$53.57, implying the stock looks roughly 35.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited generated revenue of HK$110B at a net margin of 6.4%. Revenue grew 26.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.0%. Net debt stands at HK$3.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$39.86 (bear case) to HK$67.27 (bull case); at HK$39.52, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at 36%, 3808 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$41.40 HK$64.33 HK$103.19 80
Residual Income HK$16.84 HK$21.59 HK$54.42 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$38.73 HK$59.20 HK$85.65 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$41.63 HK$66.60 HK$110.07 38
Owner Earnings HK$47.58 HK$77.37 HK$129.25 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$38.73 HK$59.71 HK$88.19 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$42.88 HK$68.28 HK$100.14 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$45.82 HK$74.33 HK$107.01 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$38.53 HK$58.83 HK$89.89 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$42.21 HK$65.10 HK$99.90 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$44.15 HK$69.54 HK$105.65 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$17.29 HK$80.29 HK$110.30 54
Lynch FV HK$21.18 HK$30.25 HK$39.33 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$21.18 HK$30.25 HK$39.33 46
EPV HK$34.94 HK$38.96 HK$42.47 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$10.90 HK$22.66 HK$35.95 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$10.90 HK$19.11 HK$23.79 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$40.04 HK$53.39 HK$66.74 63
P/S Multiple HK$32.41 HK$43.22 HK$54.02 58
P/B Multiple HK$32.41 HK$43.22 HK$54.02 55
EV/EBIT HK$48.43 HK$60.95 HK$73.48 53
EV/EBITDA HK$46.21 HK$58.00 HK$69.79 54
EV/Revenue HK$37.67 HK$49.17 HK$60.66 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$8.15 HK$10.92 HK$16.30 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$41.40 HK$64.33 HK$103.19 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$38.73 HK$59.20 HK$85.65 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$16.84 HK$21.59 HK$54.42 76
ROIC Compounder HK$37.28 HK$44.62 HK$53.21 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$33.75 HK$48.22 HK$62.69 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$66.60) versus Asset-Based (HK$10.92). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$110B
Revenue growth (YoY) +26.9%
Net margin 6.4%
Return on equity 15.0%
Free cash flow HK$6.6B FY2025
P/E ratio 13.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 6.4%
EPS (TTM) HK$1.25
Dividend yield 3.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +39.8%
Net debt HK$3.5B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 29
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 64
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of heavy-duty trucks (HDT), medium-heavy duty trucks, light-duty trucks (LDT), and related parts and components in Mainland China and internationally.

Full company description

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of heavy-duty trucks (HDT), medium-heavy duty trucks, light-duty trucks (LDT), and related parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Heavy Duty Trucks, Light Duty Trucks and Others, and Finance. The company offers HDTs under the SITRAK, HOWO, and Huanghe brands; specialty vehicles; medium-duty trucks, LDTs, buses, and other vehicles under the HOWO, Homan, and Wangpai brands; and auto-finance services to finance the end-users and the dealers. It also provides key assemblies, parts, and components, such as engines, cabins, axles, steel frames, and gearboxes. In addition, the company is involved in consultation and strategic planning in respect of the automobile market; research and development, manufacture, and sale of commercial vehicles; and truck refitting. It serves logistics, transportation, and infrastructure construction industries. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Jinan, China. Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited operates as a subsidiary of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited reported revenue of HK$110B in FY2025 versus HK$93.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$7.0B in FY2025, compounding +12.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$110B
Latest YoY
+15.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.0%
Revenue +4.1%/yr
FY21 HK$93.4B
FY22 HK$59.3B
FY23 HK$85.5B
FY24 HK$95.1B
FY25 HK$110B
Net income +12.9%/yr
FY21 HK$4.3B
FY22 HK$1.7B
FY23 HK$5.3B
FY24 HK$5.9B
FY25 HK$7.0B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +36.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +13.4 pp

of which total revenue +13.3 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +11.6 pp
Tax rate +2.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +8.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3808

Peer Group

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 149 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Above median
Fair Value upside +36% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.47× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 2.1× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.5× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.75× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 81 · sector 21
FUTURE 100 · sector 30
PAST 60 · sector 34
HEALTH 99 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 76 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (3808) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$53.57 versus a price of HK$39.52, about +36% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 3808?
Our model-based fair value for Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited is HK$53.57 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$39.52.
What is the quality score of 3808?
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (3808)?
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$110B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3808?
The net profit margin of Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited is about 6.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited pay a dividend?
Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.79% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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