Antero Resources Corp (AR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $11.8B · ISIN US03674X1063
What is Antero Resources Corp really worth?
Antero Resources Corp
AR · US
A solid business, but trading 71% above our fair value of $23.25.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from $23.07 to $23.25 (+0.8%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +11.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.38 – $48.31 · fair‑value band $21.26 – $34.87 · the $39.69 price screens above the $23.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Antero Resources Corp (AR) currently trades at $39.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.25, implying the stock looks roughly 70.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $61.30 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the $39.69 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.56, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Antero Resources Corp generated revenue of $5.6B at a net margin of 17.1%. Revenue grew 34.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at $4.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.26 (bear case) to $34.87 (bull case); at $39.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −41%, AR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.09 per share, which is 9.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($61.30) versus Dividend Discount ($6.56). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream.
Full company description
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 731 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Antero Resources Corp reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $634M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +11.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AR screens 71% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Halliburton, TechnipFMC, Antero Resources, APA Corporation, and Transocean Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
- Antero Announced as Official Jersey Patch Sponsor of WVU Athletics
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | −1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $130.35 | $90.15 | −31% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | C$69.03 | C$44.78 | −35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.35 | $132.20 | −8% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $59.17 | $30.06 | −49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $200.52 | $105.24 | −48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $47.35 | $27.06 | −43% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | −36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.57 | $42.85 | −21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $366.50 | $77.26 | −79% |
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