Alsea S.A.B. de C.V (ALSEA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · MX · Market cap 35.3B MXN (≈ $2.1B) · ISIN MXP001391012
What is Alsea S.A.B. de C.V really worth?
A solid business, trading 54% below our fair value of 93.25 MXN.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 9 days ago
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (54.60 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (54.60 MXN to 131.90 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 29.34 MXN – 77.31 MXN · fair‑value band 54.60 MXN – 131.90 MXN · the 42.83 MXN price screens below the 93.25 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Alsea S.A.B. de C.V (ALSEA) currently trades at 42.83 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 93.25 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 54.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 210.06 MXN per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 42.83 MXN price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 27.68 MXN, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alsea S.A.B. de C.V generated revenue of 85.4B MXN at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.4%. Net debt stands at 28.3B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 54.60 MXN (bear case) to 131.90 MXN (bull case); at 42.83 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 118%, ALSEA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 2.04 MXN per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (210.06 MXN) versus Asset-Based (7.37 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands.
Full company description
Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alsea S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 85.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 53.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B MXN in FY2025, compounding +27.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alsea (BMV:ALSEA *) Stock Sees Fair Value Moves Lower After Analyst Revisions
- Alsea SAB de CV (ALSSF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
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