Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · MX · Market cap 35.3B MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 61.77 MXN to 93.25 MXN (+51.0%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −7.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 110% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (54.60 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (54.60 MXN to 131.90 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 29.34 MXN – 77.31 MXN · fair‑value band 54.60 MXN – 131.90 MXN · the 44.41 MXN price screens below the 93.25 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA) currently trades at 44.41 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 93.25 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 110.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alsea, S.A. generated revenue of 85.4B MXN at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.4%. Net debt stands at 28.3B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 54.60 MXN (bear case) to 131.90 MXN (bull case); at 44.41 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 110%, ALSEA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (210.06 MXN) versus Asset-Based (7.37 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands.
Full company description
Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alsea, S.A. reported revenue of 85.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 53.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B MXN in FY2025, compounding +27.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Restaurants · 224 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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