Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.2B · ISIN US0116591092
What is Alaska Air Group Inc really worth?
Alaska Air Group Inc
ALK · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $37.70.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from $18.85 to $37.70 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −17.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($38.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.08 – $76.60 · fair‑value band $28.26 – $38.14 · the $41.59 price screens above the $37.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Alaska Air Group Inc (ALK) currently trades at $41.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.70, implying the stock looks roughly 10.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $24.76 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $41.59 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $8.68, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alaska Air Group Inc generated revenue of $14.4B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.9%. Net debt stands at $6.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $28.26 (bear case) to $38.14 (bull case); at $41.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at −9%, ALK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3316 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($24.76) versus Earnings-Based ($8.68). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional.
Full company description
Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates airlines. It operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing jet aircraft for passengers and cargo in the United States, and in parts of Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas; and for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alaska Air Group Inc reported revenue of $14.2B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +23.2%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding −32.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Airlines · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $80.07 | $115.82 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $110.60 | $175.62 | +59% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $38.73 | $14.76 | −62% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,166 | ₹3,073 | −41% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.94 | ¥7.16 | +21% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.50 | $106.79 | +103% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.08 | ¥1.28 | −75% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.99 | €18.94 | +137% |
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