Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $27.4B · ISIN US00827B1061
What is Affirm Holdings Inc really worth?
Affirm Holdings Inc
AFRM · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 1,325% above our fair value of $5.22.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price −4.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.91 – $168.52 · fair‑value band $3.79 – $5.22 · the $74.30 price screens above the $5.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) currently trades at $74.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.22, implying the stock looks roughly 1,324.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $16.59 per share, and 0 of the 18 models we run sit above the $74.30 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.8600, and 18 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Affirm Holdings Inc generated revenue of $4.0B at a net margin of 9.6%. Revenue grew 32.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.5%. Net debt stands at $6.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.79 (bear case) to $5.22 (bull case); at $74.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −93%, AFRM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.06 per share, which is 20.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($16.59) versus Dividend Discount ($0.8600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
Notify me when AFRM reaches fair value
Put AFRM on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates payment network in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app.
Full company description
Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates payment network in the United States, Canada, and internationally. Its platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. The company's commerce platform, agreements with originating banks, and capital markets partners enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time. It has active merchants covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies with an omni-channel presence. The company's merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, home and lifestyle, travel and ticketing, electronics, fashion and beauty, equipment and auto, and general merchandise. Affirm Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Affirm Holdings Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $870M in FY2021, a compound +38.7%/yr. Reported net income was $52.2M in FY2025.
AFRM screens 1,325% overvalued. Compare with Visa Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Affirm Q4 2026 earnings beat: revenue and GMV top estimates
- Affirm Continues to Stand Out From Peers in Buy Now, Pay Later Space, RBC Says
- Stock Market Today: Dow Rises As Warsh Speech Starts; Marvell, Affirm, PayPal Are Big Movers (Live Coverage)
- Klarna Rallies 6%, Sezzle Gains 2% as Buy Now Pay Later Relief Trade Broadens, Affirm Jumps 10%
Peer Group
Credit Services · 324 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Credit Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa Inc V | $379.66 | $198.27 | −48% |
| Mastercard Incorporated MA | $591.73 | $221.87 | −63% |
| American Express Company AXP | $334.16 | $206.40 | −38% |
| Capital One Financial Corporation COF | $215.67 | $117.51 | −46% |
| Bajaj Finance Limited BAJFINANCE | ₹1,093 | ₹397.70 | −64% |
| PayPal Holdings PYPL | $61.47 | $77.12 | +25% |
| Shriram Finance Limited SHRIRAMFIN | ₹1,134 | ₹553.82 | −51% |
| Synchrony Financial, SYF | $78.05 | $137.28 | +76% |
| SoFi Technologies, Inc SOFI | $18.06 | $5.02 | −72% |
| Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company CHOLAFIN | ₹1,866 | ₹796.47 | −57% |
Compare Affirm Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of AFRM?
What is the quality score of AFRM?
What is the revenue of Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM)?
What is the net profit margin of AFRM?
Does Affirm Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Watch Affirm Holdings Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Affirm Holdings Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.