American Airlines Group (AAL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $11.2B · ISIN US02376R1023
What is American Airlines Group really worth?
American Airlines Group
AAL · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 84% above our fair value of $7.04.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from $3.52 to $7.04 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −21.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.07 – $24.93 · fair‑value band $5.02 – $8.82 · the $12.97 price screens above the $7.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
American Airlines Group (AAL) currently trades at $12.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.04, implying the stock looks roughly 84.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $3.03 per share, and 3 of the 10 models we run sit above the $12.97 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.9400, and 7 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, American Airlines Group generated revenue of $56.0B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $34.3B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 41.8. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.02 (bear case) to $8.82 (bull case); at $12.97, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 45% fair-value upside, at −46%, AAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.2106 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($78.36) versus Earnings-Based ($0.9400). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (67).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific.
Full company description
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It also operates a mainline fleet of 1,013 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Airlines Group reported revenue of $54.6B in FY2025 versus $29.9B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $111M in FY2025.
AAL screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- American Airlines (AAL) Registers a Bigger Fall Than the Market: Important Facts to Note
- American Airlines (AAL) Restores Screens to Close Profit Gap with Delta Air Lines (DAL)
- American Airlines Faces a Reckoning: Merger Off the Table, Turnaround Uncertain
- Q2 Earnings Highs And Lows: American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) Vs The Rest Of The Consumer Discretionary - Travel and Vacation Providers Stocks
Peer Group
Airlines · 57 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $80.07 | $115.82 | +45% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $110.60 | $175.62 | +59% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $38.73 | $14.76 | −62% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,166 | ₹3,073 | −41% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.94 | ¥7.16 | +21% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $52.50 | $106.79 | +103% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.08 | ¥1.28 | −75% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA | €7.99 | €18.94 | +137% |
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