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Chery Automobile Co (9973) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$145B

CA Chery Automobile Co 9973 · HK
PriceHK$25.24
Fair ValueHK$36.93
Upside+46.3%
Quality45/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.53% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 56/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$28.32 – HK$97.91 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −3.2% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 46% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$28.32). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$28.32 to HK$97.91). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (11 months)

HK$32.25 HK$23.31 Fair Value HK$36.93 Sep 2025 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

11‑month range HK$23.31 – HK$32.25 · fair‑value band HK$28.32 – HK$97.91 · the HK$25.24 price screens below the HK$36.93 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Chery Automobile Co (9973) currently trades at HK$25.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$36.93, implying the stock looks roughly 46.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Chery Automobile Co generated revenue of HK$298B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$20.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$28.32 (bear case) to HK$97.91 (bull case); at HK$25.24, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 46%, 9973 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$46.77 HK$78.36 HK$142.21 80
Residual Income HK$26.49 HK$40.23 HK$506.30 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$38.05 HK$65.13 HK$112.09 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$49.09 HK$71.49 HK$142.80 38
Owner Earnings HK$43.55 HK$86.28 HK$175.98 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$38.05 HK$58.19 HK$99.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$41.92 HK$66.12 HK$112.91 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$61.78 HK$128.75 HK$219.91 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$40.58 HK$74.32 HK$97.87 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$44.36 HK$82.50 HK$151.60 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$58.77 HK$124.36 HK$239.87 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$22.69 HK$158.25 HK$222.07 54
Lynch FV HK$56.50 HK$80.72 HK$104.94 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$56.50 HK$80.72 HK$104.94 46
EPV HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.43 HK$13.37 HK$21.22 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.43 HK$11.28 HK$14.04 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$55.06 HK$73.41 HK$91.77 63
P/S Multiple HK$42.55 HK$56.73 HK$70.91 58
P/B Multiple HK$27.44 HK$36.58 HK$45.73 55
EV/EBIT HK$42.28 HK$53.02 HK$63.76 53
EV/EBITDA HK$38.52 HK$48.00 HK$57.49 54
EV/Revenue HK$31.77 HK$41.08 HK$50.39 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.57 HK$6.13 HK$9.15 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$46.77 HK$78.36 HK$142.21 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$38.05 HK$65.13 HK$112.09 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$26.49 HK$40.23 HK$506.30 76
ROIC Compounder HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$74.57 HK$106.53 HK$138.49 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$106.53) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.13). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$298B
Revenue growth (YoY) -3.4%
Net margin 6.2%
Return on equity 47.1%
Free cash flow HK$12.9B FY2025
P/E ratio 6.3 as of Jul 3, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 8.5%
EPS (TTM) HK$2.47
Dividend yield 3.5%
EPS growth (YoY) -15.6%
Net cash HK$20.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 60
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 51
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 48
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles, and KD kits. The company also provides after-sales services.

Full company description

Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles, and KD kits. The company also provides after-sales services. It offers its products under the CHERY, JETOUR, EXEED, iCAR, and LUXEED brand names. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chery Automobile Co reported revenue of HK$293B in FY2025 versus HK$92.6B in FY2022, a compound +46.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$18.5B in FY2025, compounding +43.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$293B
Latest YoY
+0.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+46.7%
Revenue +46.7%/yr
FY22 HK$92.6B
FY23 HK$163B
FY24 HK$293B
FY25 HK$293B
Net income +43.5%/yr
FY22 HK$6.3B
FY23 HK$12.0B
FY24 HK$14.1B
FY25 HK$18.5B

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Chery Automobile Co · Fair Value
HK$36.93 +46%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chery Automobile Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9973

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside +46% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 47% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.08× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.85× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.7× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 95 · sector 31
FUTURE 0 · sector 33
PAST 100 · sector 20
HEALTH 96 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 71 · sector 46

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $188.22 $247.83 +32%
BYD Company 81211 HK$76.90 HK$48.59 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N 1,909 MXN 2,610 MXN +37%
Ford Motor Company F C$11.72 C$3.70 -68%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,783 CZK +262%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,875 ₹8,236 -41%
Kia Corporation 000270 135,600 KRW 341,751 KRW +152%
Weichai Power Co 2338 HK$36.40 HK$28.46 -22%
Geely Automobile Holdings 80175 HK$15.50 HK$19.14 +23%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chery Automobile Co (9973) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$36.93 versus a price of HK$25.24, about +46% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9973?
Our model-based fair value for Chery Automobile Co is HK$36.93 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$25.24.
What is the quality score of 9973?
Chery Automobile Co has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chery Automobile Co (9973)?
Chery Automobile Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$298B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9973?
The net profit margin of Chery Automobile Co is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chery Automobile Co pay a dividend?
Chery Automobile Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.53% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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