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Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$145B (≈ $18.4B)

What is Chery Automobile Co Ltd really worth?

CA Chery Automobile Co Ltd 9973 · HK
PriceHK$25.36
Fair ValueHK$36.92
Upside+45.6%
Quality45/100

Below-average quality, trading 31% below our fair value of HK$36.92.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +46.7 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)

Risks

!Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
!Moderate moat 56/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range HK$28.32 to HK$97.89

For context

·3.39% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range HK$28.32 – HK$97.89

Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price −4.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$28.32). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$28.32 to HK$97.89). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (11 months)

HK$32.25 HK$23.31 Fair Value HK$36.92 Sep 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

11‑month range HK$23.31 – HK$32.25 · fair‑value band HK$28.32 – HK$97.89 · the HK$25.36 price screens below the HK$36.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 19, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) currently trades at HK$25.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$36.92, implying the stock looks roughly 31.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$106.53 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$25.36 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.13, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Chery Automobile Co Ltd generated revenue of HK$298B at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$20.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$28.32 (bear case) to HK$97.89 (bull case); at HK$25.36, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 46%, 9973 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$1.09 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$49.09 HK$71.49 HK$142.80 72
EPV HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 72
Growth DCF HK$46.77 HK$78.36 HK$142.21 71
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$49.09 HK$71.49 HK$142.80 72
Owner Earnings HK$43.55 HK$86.28 HK$175.98 68
5Y Revenue Exit HK$38.05 HK$58.19 HK$99.71 67
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$41.92 HK$66.12 HK$112.91 69
5Y P/E Exit HK$61.78 HK$128.75 HK$219.91 64
10Y Revenue Exit HK$40.58 HK$74.32 HK$97.87 63
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$44.36 HK$82.50 HK$151.60 61
10Y P/E Exit HK$58.77 HK$124.36 HK$239.87 57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$22.69 HK$158.25 HK$222.07 58
Lynch FV HK$56.50 HK$80.72 HK$104.94 56
PEG = 1.0 HK$56.50 HK$80.72 HK$104.94 52
EPV HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$6.43 HK$13.37 HK$21.22 61
DDM Multi-Stage HK$6.43 HK$11.28 HK$14.04 62
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$55.06 HK$73.41 HK$91.77 61
P/S Multiple HK$42.55 HK$56.73 HK$70.91 56
P/B Multiple HK$27.44 HK$36.58 HK$45.73 53
EV/EBIT HK$42.28 HK$53.02 HK$63.76 65
EV/EBITDA HK$38.52 HK$48.00 HK$57.49 66
EV/Revenue HK$31.77 HK$41.08 HK$50.39 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.57 HK$6.13 HK$9.15 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$46.77 HK$78.36 HK$142.21 71
Rev-Margin DCF HK$38.05 HK$65.13 HK$112.09 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$26.49 HK$40.23 HK$506.30 60
ROIC Compounder HK$27.67 HK$30.61 HK$33.18 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$74.57 HK$106.53 HK$138.49 63

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$106.53) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.13). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (72).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 6.3 as of Jul 3, 2026
P/S ratio 0.40 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$2.47 price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3
Dividend yield 3.4% payout 34.8%
Net margin 6.3% FY2025
Return on equity 47.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% avg 4y
Operating margin 8.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$298B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −3.4% 3y avg +46.7%
EPS growth (YoY) −15.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$12.9B FY2025
Net cash HK$20.3B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 45/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 60
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 52
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 48
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles, and KD kits. The company also provides after-sales services.

Full company description

Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells passenger vehicles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It offers internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles, and KD kits. The company also provides after-sales services. It offers its products under the CHERY, JETOUR, EXEED, iCAR, and LUXEED brand names. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Chery Automobile Co Ltd reported revenue of 293B CNY in FY2025 versus 92.6B CNY in FY2022, a compound +46.7%/yr. Reported net income was 18.5B CNY in FY2025, compounding +43.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$293B
Latest YoY
+0.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+46.7%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+13.4% (10.0 + 3.4)
Revenue +46.7%/yr
FY22 92.6B CNY
FY23 163B CNY
FY24 293B CNY
FY25 293B CNY
Net income +43.5%/yr
FY22 6.3B CNY
FY23 12.0B CNY
FY24 14.1B CNY
FY25 18.5B CNY

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HK$36.92 +31%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chery Automobile Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9973

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside +46% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 47% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Revenue growth −3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.4% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.08× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.85× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.49× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE94 · sector 24
FUTURE0 · sector 27
PAST100 · sector 22
HEALTH96 · sector 94
DIVIDEND68 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $191.84 $247.83 +29%
BYD Company 81211 HK$76.90 HK$48.59 −37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €355.50 €167.67 −53%
General Motors Company GM $86.27 $52.69 −39%
Ford Motor Company F $13.88 $11.51 −17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €46.95 €106.16 +126%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW3 €77.42 €248.34 +221%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$36.92 versus a price of HK$25.36, about +46% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9973?
Our model-based fair value for Chery Automobile Co Ltd is HK$36.92 (as of Aug 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$25.36.
What is the quality score of 9973?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Chery Automobile Co Ltd (9973)?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$298B (latest available figure, as of Aug 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9973?
The net profit margin of Chery Automobile Co Ltd is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Chery Automobile Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Chery Automobile Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.39% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 19, 2026).
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