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Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co (9863) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$49.8B (≈ $6.3B)

What is Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co really worth?

ZL Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co 9863 · HK
PriceHK$37.78
Fair ValueHK$13.15
Upside−65.2%
Quality44/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 187% above our fair value of HK$13.15.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +152.5 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 0.8% net margin
!Trails peers (2/13)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$13.01 – HK$13.28

Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Share price −6.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$13.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The models converge in a tight band (HK$13.01 to HK$13.28), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

HK$73.50 HK$17.90 Fair Value HK$13.15 Sep 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

47‑month range HK$17.90 – HK$73.50 · fair‑value band HK$13.01 – HK$13.28 · the HK$37.78 price screens above the HK$13.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co (9863) currently trades at HK$37.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$13.15, implying the stock looks roughly 187.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$94.34 per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the HK$37.78 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$8.37, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co generated revenue of HK$64.7B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 73.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$9.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$13.01 (bear case) to HK$13.28 (bull case); at HK$37.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −65%, 9863 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.0135 per share, which is 0.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$49.37 HK$62.72 HK$88.28 74
EPV HK$11.14 HK$11.25 HK$11.35 74
FCF DCF HK$124.84 HK$190.43 HK$399.32 73
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$124.84 HK$190.43 HK$399.32 73
5Y Revenue Exit HK$42.35 HK$48.52 HK$60.01 72
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$49.37 HK$62.72 HK$88.28 74
5Y P/E Exit HK$47.55 HK$68.11 HK$91.82 69
10Y Revenue Exit HK$66.77 HK$94.34 HK$99.43 66
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$71.92 HK$109.47 HK$162.76 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$70.59 HK$105.54 HK$152.97 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.15 HK$21.99 HK$30.86 61
Lynch FV HK$11.36 HK$16.23 HK$21.10 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$11.36 HK$16.23 HK$21.10 55
EPV HK$11.14 HK$11.25 HK$11.35 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$7.65 HK$10.20 HK$12.75 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.91 HK$7.88 HK$9.85 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.91 HK$7.88 HK$9.85 55
EV/EBIT HK$11.52 HK$11.88 HK$12.23 66
EV/EBITDA HK$20.53 HK$23.88 HK$27.24 67
EV/Revenue HK$11.18 HK$11.48 HK$11.79 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$6.24 HK$8.37 HK$12.49 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$118.04 HK$223.99 HK$397.60 73
Rev-Margin DCF HK$44.63 HK$54.30 HK$75.89 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$9.23 HK$9.08 HK$8.03 68
ROIC Compounder HK$11.14 HK$11.25 HK$11.35 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$15.08 HK$21.54 HK$28.01 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$94.34) versus Asset-Based (HK$8.37). Highest evidence: 5Y EBITDA Exit (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 79.5 as of Jul 3, 2026
P/S ratio 0.64 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0200 price ÷ EPS = P/E 79.5
Net margin 0.8% FY2025
Return on equity 4.5% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −14.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 0.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$64.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +73.6% 3y avg +73.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$7.7B FY2025
Net cash HK$9.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 25
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 25
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 21
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of new energy vehicles in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers four major series"A, B, C, and D covering sedans, SUVs, and MPVs, with current models on sale such as A10, Lafa5, B01, B10, D19, C16, C10, C11, C01, and T03.

Full company description

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co., Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of new energy vehicles in Mainland China and internationally. The company offers four major series"A, B, C, and D covering sedans, SUVs, and MPVs, with current models on sale such as A10, Lafa5, B01, B10, D19, C16, C10, C11, C01, and T03. It is also involved in the manufacture and sale of electric vehicles and components; providing electric vehicle charging operation and aftersales services; new energy vehicle retail; technical service and development; and warehousing and sorting. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co reported revenue of 64.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.1B CNY in FY2021, a compound +113.2%/yr. Reported net income was 524M CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$64.7B
Latest YoY
+101.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+73.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+152.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+186.6%
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Revenue +113.2%/yr
FY21 3.1B CNY
FY22 12.4B CNY
FY23 16.7B CNY
FY24 32.2B CNY
FY25 64.7B CNY
Net income
FY21 −2.8B CNY
FY22 −5.1B CNY
FY23 −4.2B CNY
FY24 −2.8B CNY
FY25 524M CNY

9863 screens 187% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

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Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co · Fair Value
HK$13.15 −187%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9863

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 74% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.16× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 79.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 3.52× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.77× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 37.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 24
FUTURE100 · sector 27
PAST18 · sector 22
HEALTH92 · sector 94
DIVIDEND0 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $191.84 $247.83 +29%
BYD Company 81211 HK$76.90 HK$48.59 −37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €355.50 €167.67 −53%
General Motors Company GM $86.27 $52.69 −39%
Ford Motor Company F $13.88 $11.51 −17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €46.95 €106.16 +126%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW3 €77.42 €248.34 +221%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co (9863) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$13.15 versus a price of HK$37.78, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 9863?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co is HK$13.15 (as of Aug 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$37.78.
What is the quality score of 9863?
Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co (9863)?
Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$64.7B (latest available figure, as of Aug 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 9863?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Leapmotor Tech Co is about 0.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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