China Airlines, Ltd (2610) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TW · Market cap 126B TWD
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 41.85 TWD to 14.65 TWD (−65.0%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price −6.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 26% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (10.25 TWD to 21.09 TWD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12.98 TWD – 30.04 TWD · fair‑value band 10.25 TWD – 21.09 TWD · the 19.90 TWD price screens above the 14.65 TWD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
China Airlines, Ltd (2610) currently trades at 19.90 TWD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.65 TWD, implying the stock looks roughly 26.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, China Airlines, Ltd generated revenue of 213B TWD at a net margin of 7.4%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.1%. Net debt stands at 52.1B TWD. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 10.25 TWD (bear case) to 21.09 TWD (bull case); at 19.90 TWD, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at -26%, 2610 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (41.85 TWD) versus Asset-Based (10.75 TWD). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
China Airlines, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger, cargo, and postal services in the Americas, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, China, and Taiwan.
Full company description
China Airlines, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger, cargo, and postal services in the Americas, Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, China, and Taiwan. The company also offers agency services for operations and maintenance; aircraft maintenance; avionics computer operation contracting; cleaning and washing products for passenger aircraft; real estate leasing services; in-flight meals; hotel and catering services. In addition, it is involved in agency and sale of aircraft parts and aviation equipment; aircraft leasing and sale; hotel business; computer hardware and software sale and maintenance business; cargo warehousing; intermodal air freight and warehousing business; real estate management; and airport support services and investment business. As of February 28, 2026, the company operates 83 aircraft, including 65 passenger jets and 18 freighters. China Airlines, Ltd. was incorporated in 1959 and is based in Taoyuan City, Taiwan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
China Airlines, Ltd reported revenue of 209B TWD in FY2025 versus 139B TWD in FY2021, a compound +10.8%/yr. Reported net income was 14.7B TWD in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
2610 screens 26% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Willis Lease Finance Corporation Acquires Three Airbus A330-300 Aircraft That Will Be Leased to China Airlines and EVA Air
- JBLU Adds Asia Access Through China Airlines Loyalty Tie-Up
- JetBlue Adds Redemption Benefits to China Airlines Partnership
- Agoda and China Airlines Enhance Travel Rewards with New Hotel Booking Platform, StayMiles
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $89.93 | $115.82 | +29% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $125.12 | $175.62 | +40% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $44.98 | $14.76 | -67% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,333 | ₹3,073 | -42% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.09 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +11% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.94 | ¥7.16 | +21% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥5.07 | ¥1.28 | -75% |
| China Eastern Airlines Corporation 600115 | ¥3.57 | ¥14.20 | +298% |
| Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 | HK$14.80 | HK$31.02 | +110% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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