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Almarai Company (2280) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · SA · Market cap 47.7B SAR (≈ $12.7B) · ISIN SA000A0ETHT1

What is Almarai Company really worth?

AC Almarai Company 2280 · SR
Price47.44 SAR
Fair Value38.91 SAR
Upside−18.0%
Quality48/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 22% above our fair value of 38.91 SAR.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 10.6% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.5 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
!Moderate moat 51/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 9 out of 100

For context

·2.42% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range 28.94 SAR – 72.18 SAR

Fair value as of: Aug 17, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 19 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 17, 2026, revised from 26.08 SAR to 38.91 SAR (+49.2%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −1.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (28.94 SAR to 72.18 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

66.02 SAR 38.82 SAR Fair Value 38.91 SAR May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 38.82 SAR – 66.02 SAR · fair‑value band 28.94 SAR – 72.18 SAR · the 47.44 SAR price screens above the 38.91 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 17, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Almarai Company (2280) currently trades at 47.44 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 38.91 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 21.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 47.21 SAR per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the 47.44 SAR price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 10.37 SAR, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Almarai Company generated revenue of 23.0B SAR at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.2%. Net debt stands at 12.5B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 28.94 SAR (bear case) to 72.18 SAR (bull case); at 47.44 SAR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −18%, 2280 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.8865 SAR per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV 7.39 SAR 10.37 SAR 12.98 SAR 73
Residual Income 19.14 SAR 22.50 SAR 42.67 SAR 73
ROIC Compounder 7.39 SAR 10.37 SAR 12.98 SAR 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
5Y Revenue Exit 1.60 SAR 12.37 SAR 26.64 SAR 65
5Y EBITDA Exit 15.83 SAR 39.42 SAR 67.78 SAR 71
5Y P/E Exit 12.51 SAR 33.11 SAR 55.35 SAR 67
10Y Revenue Exit — 5.69 SAR 18.47 SAR 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 6.54 SAR 24.63 SAR 50.33 SAR 62
10Y P/E Exit 4.41 SAR 20.21 SAR 40.71 SAR 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 16.80 SAR 56.39 SAR 75.54 SAR 64
Lynch FV 12.83 SAR 18.33 SAR 23.83 SAR 61
PEG = 1.0 12.83 SAR 18.33 SAR 23.83 SAR 57
EPV 7.39 SAR 10.37 SAR 12.98 SAR 73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 9.10 SAR 18.93 SAR 30.03 SAR 66
DDM Multi-Stage 9.10 SAR 15.59 SAR 19.87 SAR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 38.92 SAR 51.89 SAR 64.86 SAR 63
P/S Multiple 26.64 SAR 35.52 SAR 44.40 SAR 58
P/B Multiple 31.50 SAR 42.01 SAR 52.51 SAR 55
EV/EBIT 16.10 SAR 24.97 SAR 33.83 SAR 65
EV/EBITDA 34.07 SAR 48.93 SAR 63.78 SAR 67
EV/Revenue 8.49 SAR 16.63 SAR 24.76 SAR 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 10.33 SAR 13.84 SAR 20.65 SAR 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 19.14 SAR 22.50 SAR 42.67 SAR 73
ROIC Compounder 7.39 SAR 10.37 SAR 12.98 SAR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 33.05 SAR 47.21 SAR 61.38 SAR 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (47.21 SAR) versus Economic Profit (10.37 SAR). Highest evidence: EPV (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 19.3
P/S ratio 2.15 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 2.46 SAR price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3
Dividend yield 2.4% payout 46.7%
Net margin 11.1% FY2025
Return on equity 12.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 13.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 23.0B SAR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.0% 3y avg +5.6%
EPS growth (YoY) −1.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 36.3M SAR FY2025
Net debt 12.5B SAR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 51
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Almarai Company operates as an integrated consumer food and beverage company in Saudi Arabia, other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and internationally. The company operates through Dairy and Juice, Bakery, Poultry, and Other Activities segments.

Full company description

Almarai Company operates as an integrated consumer food and beverage company in Saudi Arabia, other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and internationally. The company operates through Dairy and Juice, Bakery, Poultry, and Other Activities segments. It offers drinking yogurt, milk coffee, protein milk, flavored milk, fresh milk, evaporated milk, and milk powders; yoghurts and desserts; cheese, honey, sweet condensed milk, butter, olive oil, butter ghee, cooking and whipping cream, and creams; dips including fresh natural cream, labneh, and hummus; ice cream; bakery and poultry products; fresh juices; beverages comprising iced coffee and tea, and refreshing drinks; infant and medical nutrition products; dates; and seafood products. It provides its products under the Almarai, L'usine, 7Days, ALYOUM, Nuralac, Evolac, SureGrow Junior, SureNutri, Farm's Select, Ice leaf, Almira, Seama, Beyti, Teeba, AlBashayer, brands. The company also owns and operates arable farms; and provides horticulture services. Almarai Company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Almarai Company reported revenue of 22.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 15.8B SAR in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B SAR in FY2025, compounding +12.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 59/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
22.1B SAR
Latest YoY
+5.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+8.6% (6.2 + 2.4)
Revenue +8.6%/yr
FY21 15.8B SAR
FY22 18.7B SAR
FY23 19.6B SAR
FY24 21.0B SAR
FY25 22.1B SAR
Net income +12.0%/yr
FY21 1.6B SAR
FY22 1.8B SAR
FY23 2.0B SAR
FY24 2.3B SAR
FY25 2.5B SAR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.8 %

of which total revenue +4.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin −3.1 %
Tax rate −0.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

2280 screens 22% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Almarai Company · Fair Value
38.91 SAR −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Almarai Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2280

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 648 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −18% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.53× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.62× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.55× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 350.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE9 · sector 25
FUTURE55 · sector 21
PAST49 · sector 28
HEALTH73 · sector 96
DIVIDEND48 · sector 53

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 78.62 CHF 57.26 −27%
Danone S.A BN €64.28 €48.41 −25%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,478 ₹251.94 −83%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $25.13 $24.59 −2%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥35.05 ¥21.93 −37%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥25.51 ¥32.50 +27%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥25.28 ¥9.89 −61%
General Mills, Inc GIS $40.44 $28.32 −30%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.64 SGD 3.89 SGD +7%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,511 ₹1,765 −68%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Almarai Company (2280) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 38.91 SAR versus a price of 47.44 SAR, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2280?
Our model-based fair value for Almarai Company is 38.91 SAR (as of Aug 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 47.44 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2280?
Almarai Company has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Almarai Company (2280)?
Almarai Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 23.0B SAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2280?
The net profit margin of Almarai Company is about 10.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Almarai Company pay a dividend?
Almarai Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.42% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 17, 2026).
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