Almarai Company (2280) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · SA · Market cap 47.7B SAR
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 26.08 SAR to 38.91 SAR (+49.2%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +5.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 19% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (28.94 SAR to 72.18 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 38.82 SAR – 66.02 SAR · fair‑value band 28.94 SAR – 72.18 SAR · the 48.00 SAR price screens above the 38.91 SAR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Almarai Company (2280) currently trades at 48.00 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 38.91 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 18.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Almarai Company generated revenue of 23.0B SAR at a net margin of 10.6%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.2%. Net debt stands at 12.5B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 28.94 SAR (bear case) to 72.18 SAR (bull case); at 48.00 SAR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -19%, 2280 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (47.21 SAR) versus Economic Profit (10.37 SAR). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Almarai Company operates as an integrated consumer food and beverage company in Saudi Arabia, other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and internationally. The company operates through Dairy and Juice, Bakery, Poultry, and Other Activities segments.
Full company description
Almarai Company operates as an integrated consumer food and beverage company in Saudi Arabia, other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and internationally. The company operates through Dairy and Juice, Bakery, Poultry, and Other Activities segments. It offers drinking yogurt, milk coffee, protein milk, flavored milk, fresh milk, evaporated milk, and milk powders; yoghurts and desserts; cheese, honey, sweet condensed milk, butter, olive oil, butter ghee, cooking and whipping cream, and creams; dips including fresh natural cream, labneh, and hummus; ice cream; bakery and poultry products; fresh juices; beverages comprising iced coffee and tea, and refreshing drinks; infant and medical nutrition products; dates; and seafood products. It provides its products under the Almarai, L'usine, 7Days, ALYOUM, Nuralac, Evolac, SureGrow Junior, SureNutri, Farm's Select, Ice leaf, Almira, Seama, Beyti, Teeba, AlBashayer, brands. The company also owns and operates arable farms; and provides horticulture services. Almarai Company was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Almarai Company reported revenue of 22.1B SAR in FY2025 versus 15.8B SAR in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.5B SAR in FY2025, compounding +12.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
2280 screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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