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Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · CN · Market cap 137B CNY (≈ $20.4B) · ISIN CNE1000048D3

What is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd really worth?

YK Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd 300999 · SHE
Price¥26.71
Fair Value¥9.89
Upside−63.0%
Quality62/100

A solid business, but trading 170% above our fair value of ¥9.89.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 30/100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 17 out of 100

For context

·0.86% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range ¥7.41 – ¥12.96

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +1.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥12.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥97.83 ¥23.26 Fair Value ¥9.89 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥23.26 – ¥97.83 · fair‑value band ¥7.41 – ¥12.96 · the ¥26.71 price screens above the ¥9.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) currently trades at ¥26.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥9.89, implying the stock looks roughly 170.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥27.62 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥26.71 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥6.14, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd generated revenue of 252B CNY at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 10.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. Net debt stands at 41.1B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥7.41 (bear case) to ¥12.96 (bull case); at ¥26.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −63%, 300999 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.2990 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF ¥28.46 ¥38.02 ¥51.74 81
Growth DCF ¥29.05 ¥37.90 ¥50.03 80
Owner Earnings ¥12.47 ¥14.77 ¥18.07 78
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥28.46 ¥38.02 ¥51.74 81
Owner Earnings ¥12.47 ¥14.77 ¥18.07 78
5Y Revenue Exit ¥20.28 ¥25.11 ¥30.89 74
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥24.51 ¥32.67 ¥41.71 76
5Y P/E Exit ¥20.14 ¥24.85 ¥29.46 72
10Y Revenue Exit ¥22.89 ¥27.80 ¥33.61 68
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥25.79 ¥32.92 ¥41.53 70
10Y P/E Exit ¥23.05 ¥27.62 ¥32.57 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥3.95 ¥9.55 ¥12.34 65
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.69 ¥2.41 ¥3.14 57
EPV ¥13.55 ¥14.57 ¥15.47 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥4.11 ¥7.34 ¥11.49 67
DDM Multi-Stage ¥4.11 ¥6.14 ¥8.37 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥9.16 ¥12.21 ¥15.27 63
P/S Multiple ¥7.41 ¥9.89 ¥12.36 58
P/B Multiple ¥7.41 ¥9.89 ¥12.36 55
EV/EBIT ¥19.71 ¥23.82 ¥27.93 66
EV/EBITDA ¥24.37 ¥30.03 ¥35.69 67
EV/Revenue ¥16.19 ¥19.95 ¥23.72 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥8.89 ¥11.92 ¥17.79 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥29.05 ¥37.90 ¥50.03 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥20.28 ¥25.44 ¥31.13 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥13.10 ¥12.97 ¥11.34 76
ROIC Compounder ¥13.55 ¥14.57 ¥15.47 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥6.99 ¥9.98 ¥12.98 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥27.62) versus Dividend Discount (¥6.14). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 39.9
P/S ratio 0.51 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ¥0.6700 price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.9
Dividend yield 0.9% payout 34.3%
Net margin 1.3% FY2025
Return on equity 3.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 1.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 252B CNY TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.9% 3y avg −1.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +50.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 10.7B CNY FY2025
Net debt 41.1B CNY FY2025 · ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 56
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 95
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd engages in the agriculture and food processing businesses in China. It provides packaged oil, rice, and flour; condiments; groundnut and sesame; grain and oil raw material, including soybean, wheat, corn, starch, and miscellaneous grains; feedstuff, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal, FFS, PKE, SPC and …

Full company description

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd engages in the agriculture and food processing businesses in China. It provides packaged oil, rice, and flour; condiments; groundnut and sesame; grain and oil raw material, including soybean, wheat, corn, starch, and miscellaneous grains; feedstuff, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal, FFS, PKE, SPC and by-products of rice, wheat and corn, and fatty acid calcium; and oleochemicals and derivatives comprising noodles, glycerin, dimer acid, polyamide resin, natural vitamin E, natural vegetable-based phytosterols, paper chemicals, high polymers, and green surfactants. The company also offers specialty oil, industry chocolate, flour, syrup, starch, vegetable protein, Vitamin E, lecithin, food grade glycerol, monoglyceride, ground rice powder, edible alcohol, cereal, and premix powder. In addition, it is involved in central kitchen food business; processing of various food crops, such as corn, soybeans, potatoes, and sugar beets; provision of logistic services, including warehousing, trunk and urban transportation, wharf, container, railway, shipping agency, and shipping services; and packaging, consumer pack, and food service business. It sells its products under the Arawana, Olivoila, Orchid, Wonder Farm, Arawana Fengyitang, Neptune, Fengyuan, Golden Delicious, Reyland, and Jiejin 100 brands. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Bathos Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of 245B CNY in FY2025 versus 226B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was 3.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
245B CNY
Latest YoY
+2.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (9Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−11.3% (−12.2 + 0.9)
Revenue +2.0%/yr
FY21 226B CNY
FY22 257B CNY
FY23 252B CNY
FY24 239B CNY
FY25 245B CNY
Net income −6.5%/yr
FY21 4.1B CNY
FY22 3.0B CNY
FY23 2.8B CNY
FY24 2.5B CNY
FY25 3.2B CNY

300999 screens 170% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé S.A →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300999

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 648 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −63% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.42× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.54× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 11.3× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 25
FUTURE55 · sector 21
PAST15 · sector 28
HEALTH98 · sector 96
DIVIDEND17 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 78.62 CHF 57.26 −27%
Danone S.A BN €64.28 €48.41 −25%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,478 ₹251.94 −83%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $25.13 $24.59 −2%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥35.05 ¥21.93 −37%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥25.51 ¥32.50 +27%
General Mills, Inc GIS $40.44 $28.32 −30%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.64 SGD 3.89 SGD +7%
Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA ₹5,511 ₹1,765 −68%
McCormick & Company MKCV $55.65 $43.29 −22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥9.89 versus a price of ¥26.71, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300999?
Our model-based fair value for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is ¥9.89 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥26.71.
What is the quality score of 300999?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 252B CNY (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 300999?
The net profit margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.86% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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