Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd stock ¥12.21, price ¥25.91, upside -52.9%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥23.26 – ¥97.83 · fair‑value band ¥9.16 – ¥15.27 · the ¥25.91 price screens above the ¥12.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
Follow Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd engages in the agriculture and food processing businesses in China.
Show moreShow less
It provides packaged oil, rice, and flour; condiments; groundnut and sesame; grain and oil raw material, including soybean, wheat, corn, starch, and miscellaneous grains; feedstuff, such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, cottonseed meal, FFS, PKE, SPC and by-products of rice, wheat and corn, and fatty acid calcium; and oleochemicals and derivatives comprising noodles, glycerin, dimer acid, polyamide resin, natural vitamin E, natural vegetable-based phytosterols, paper chemicals, high polymers, and green surfactants.
The company also offers specialty oil, industry chocolate, flour, syrup, starch, vegetable protein, Vitamin E, lecithin, food grade glycerol, monoglyceride, ground rice powder, edible alcohol, cereal, and premix powder.
In addition, it is involved in central kitchen food business; processing of various food crops, such as corn, soybeans, potatoes, and sugar beets; provision of logistic services, including warehousing, trunk and urban transportation, wharf, container, railway, shipping agency, and shipping services; and packaging, consumer pack, and food service business.
It sells its products under the Arawana, Olivoila, Orchid, Wonder Farm, Arawana Fengyitang, Neptune, Fengyuan, Golden Delicious, Reyland, and Jiejin 100 brands. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co., Ltd operates as a subsidiary of Bathos Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) currently trades at ¥25.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥12.21, 52.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥29.58 per share, and 11 of the 25 models we run sit above the ¥25.91 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥2.34, and 14 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥9.16 (bear) to ¥15.27 (bull), the price of ¥25.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd reported revenue of 245B CNY in FY2025 versus 226B CNY in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was 3.2B CNY in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 141B CNY (≈ $21.1B) Large · P/E ratio 38.1 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.6800 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −53%, 300999 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥9.16Fair Value ¥12.21Bull¥15.27
Price ¥25.91 · Upside -52.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3649 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.2% vs 16.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.2% a year for the price and +4.6% for the forecasts.
Compare Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 615 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−52.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)1.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)38.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.44× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.55× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow13.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)15· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)18· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/300999
Frequently asked questions
Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥12.21 versus a price of ¥25.91, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 300999?
Our model-based fair value for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is ¥12.21 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥25.91.
What is the quality score of 300999?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥12.21 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥9.16, optimistic scenario ¥15.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥12.21, about −53% upside versus a price of ¥25.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥9.16, optimistic scenario ¥15.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 252B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 300999 use?
Our models discount Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd that is +1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (+1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.57 %: that much free cash flow Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd it is ¥12.21 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of ¥25.91. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, 300999 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥25.91, fair value ¥12.21, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 300999?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥25.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥12.21). For Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd the two are ¥13.70 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd worth?
The market values Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd at about 141B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is ¥25.91; our models calculate a fair value of ¥12.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 300999?
Our models span a range for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥9.16, base ¥12.21, optimistic ¥15.27 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price ¥25.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 300999?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.1 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥12.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 300999 from its 52-week high?
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd trades at ¥25.91, about 22% below its 52-week high of ¥33.39 and 11% above the low of ¥23.26 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥12.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price ¥25.91, calculated fair value ¥12.21 (−53%), Quality Score 62/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 300999 calculated?
We run Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥12.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was ¥25.91. Our model-based fair value is ¥12.21, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥15.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The market capitalisation of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 141B CNY (≈ $21.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Earnings per share at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd are ¥0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The dividend yield of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 0.9% (payout 33.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The net margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
The operating margin of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 1.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Revenue at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999)?
Earnings per share at Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd are growing +6.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd (300999) carry?
The net debt of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd is 41.1B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Oct 22, 2026