Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kraft Heinz Co stock $29.20, price $25.09, upside +16.4%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.50 – $35.17 · fair‑value band $18.14 – $42.07 · the $25.09 price screens below the $29.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in North America and internationally.
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Its products include condiments, sauces, dressings, and spreads; cheese, frozen potato products, and other frozen meals; meal kits, frozen snacks, and pickles; dry packaged desserts, refrigerated ready to eat desserts, and other dessert toppings; ready to drink and powdered beverages, and liquid concentrates; American sliced and recipe cheeses; mainstream coffee, coffee pods, and premium coffee; and cold cuts, bacon, and hot dogs.
It offers its products under the Kraft, Oscar Mayer, Heinz, Philadelphia, Lunchables, Velveeta, Ore-Ida, Capri Sun, Maxwell House, Kool-Aid, Jell-O, ABC, Master, Quero, Golden Circle, Wattie's, Pudliszki, and Plasmon brands, as well as Bagel Bites, Claussen, A1, and Cool Whip.
It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative, and independent grocery accounts; convenience, value, and club stores; pharmacies and drug stores; mass merchants; foodservice distributors; institutions, including hotels, restaurants, bakeries, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and various e-commerce platforms and retailers.
The company has a strategic partnership with the National Football League. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) currently trades at $25.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.20, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $29.20 per share, and 5 of the 8 models we run sit above the $25.09 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $15.86, and 3 of the 8 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $18.14 (bear) to $42.07 (bull), the price of $25.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kraft Heinz Co reported revenue of $24.9B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.8B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $29.8B Large · P/E ex one-offs 9.7 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) $−2.95 · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin −13.6% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 16%, KHC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.14Fair Value $29.20Bull$42.07
Price $25.09 · Upside +16.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.25/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.1% (2020) → −18.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.8% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited durable moat and weak profitability with negative earnings remain the main issues even as the company expands into new ramen flavors to aid its turnaround.
Main risk: High total debt levels could constrain the heavy investments required to regain market share in core packaged foods brands.
Kraft Heinz is entering the ramen category with Mac & Cheese flavored options for the first time in nearly twenty years. This move aims to capture demand for convenience and bolder flavors while the company invests hundreds of millions to regain market share in its core brands. Our models see the stock as undervalued. Does the innovation add meaningful growth or mainly highlight how far behind the turnaround still is?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 615 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+16.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−7.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−13.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)15.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.71× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kraft Heinz Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KHC
Frequently asked questions
Is Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.20 versus a price of $25.09, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KHC?
Our model-based fair value for Kraft Heinz Co is $29.20 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.09.
What is the quality score of KHC?
Kraft Heinz Co has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.20 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.14, optimistic scenario $42.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kraft Heinz Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.20, about +16% upside versus a price of $25.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.14, optimistic scenario $42.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
Kraft Heinz Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $24.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Kraft Heinz Co pay a dividend?
Kraft Heinz Co currently shows a dividend yield of 6.38% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kraft Heinz Co would have to grow free cash flow by -2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KHC use?
Our models discount Kraft Heinz Co at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kraft Heinz Co that is -2.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kraft Heinz Co grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies -2.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kraft Heinz Co (-2.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.30 %: that much free cash flow Kraft Heinz Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kraft Heinz Co it is $29.20 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $25.09. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kraft Heinz Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, KHC trades below its calculated fair value: price $25.09, fair value $29.20, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.20). For Kraft Heinz Co the two are $4.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kraft Heinz Co worth?
The market values Kraft Heinz Co at about $29.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $25.09; our models calculate a fair value of $29.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KHC?
Our models span a range for Kraft Heinz Co: cautious scenario $18.14, base $29.20, optimistic $42.07 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $25.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of KHC?
The PEG ratio of Kraft Heinz Co is 0.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kraft Heinz Co (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity −8.8%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KHC from its 52-week high?
Kraft Heinz Co trades at $25.09, about 8% below its 52-week high of $27.19 and 22% above the low of $20.50 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kraft Heinz Co?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kraft Heinz Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $25.09, calculated fair value $29.20 (+16%), Quality Score 50/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KHC calculated?
We run Kraft Heinz Co through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $29.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Kraft Heinz Co currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $25.09. Our model-based fair value is $29.20, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kraft Heinz Co right now?
A fairly wide model range ($18.14 to $42.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Kraft Heinz Co
How large is the market capitalisation of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The market capitalisation of Kraft Heinz Co is $29.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Kraft Heinz Co is 9.7 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss, median at FY-end 20.3 (9 FY)).
What is the P/S ratio of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kraft Heinz Co is 1.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
Earnings per share at Kraft Heinz Co are $−2.95. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The dividend yield of Kraft Heinz Co is 6.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The net margin of Kraft Heinz Co is −13.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kraft Heinz Co is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kraft Heinz Co is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
The operating margin of Kraft Heinz Co is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
Revenue at Kraft Heinz Co is growing −1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kraft Heinz Co (KHC)?
Earnings per share at Kraft Heinz Co are growing +13.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) carry?
The net debt of Kraft Heinz Co is $18.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 22, 2026