Nestle S.A. (NESN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · CH · Market cap CHF 216B · ISIN CH0038863350
What is Nestle S.A. really worth?
A solid business, but trading 37% above our fair value of CHF 57.26.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −3.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 35.23 to CHF 81.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 68.21 – CHF 110.76 · fair‑value band CHF 35.23 – CHF 81.98 · the CHF 78.31 price screens above the CHF 57.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Nestle S.A. (NESN) currently trades at CHF 78.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 57.26, implying the stock looks roughly 36.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 59.70 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 78.31 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 8.55, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nestle S.A. generated revenue of CHF 89.9B at a net margin of 10.1%. Revenue declined 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.5%. Net debt stands at CHF 53.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 35.23 (bear case) to CHF 81.98 (bull case); at CHF 78.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −27%, NESN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly CHF 0.2775 per share, which is 0.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (CHF 59.70) versus Asset-Based (CHF 8.55). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nestlé S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverage, and nutritional science products in the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Greater China, the Philippines, India, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, and internationally.
Full company description
Nestlé S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverage, and nutritional science products in the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Greater China, the Philippines, India, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, and internationally. The company offers cereals, chocolate and confectionery, coffee, culinary, chilled and frozen food, dairy, drinks, food service, ice cream, nutrition and health, petcare, water, plant-based portfolio, and recipe products. It sells its products under the Nesquik Cereal, Fitness, Cheerios, Lion Cereals, Cini Minis, KitKat Cereal, Chocapic, Koko Krunch, Shreddies, Shredded Wheat Original, Corn Flakes, Trix Cereal, Aero, Baci Perugina, KitKat, Milkybar, Smarties, Cailler, Quality Street, Garoto, Nestlé Toll House, Munch, Damak, Hsu Fu Chi, Sahne Nuss, Nestlé Sustainably Sourced Cocoa, Blue Bottle Coffee, Nescafé, Nescafé Dolce Gusto, Nespresso, Starbucks Coffee At Home, DiGiorno, Garden Gourmet, Maggi, Thomy, Stouffer's, Hot Pockets, Lean Cuisine, Life Cuisine, Buitoni, Nestlé carnation, Nestlé Coffee Mate, and Nestea brands. The company also offers its products under the Roastelier by Nescafé, Plant-based and so good!, Milo, Chef, Maggi Professional, La Lechera, Minor's, Antica Gelateria Del Corso, Drumstick, Extrême, Häagen-Dazs, Maxibon, Mövenpick, Nancare, Gerber, Cerelac, Nestum, Alfaré HMO, Athéra HMO, Alfamino HMO, Bear Brand, Nido, Orgain, Nestlé Vital, Garden of Life, Pure Encapsulations, Solgar, Compleat, Impact, Peptamen, Vitaflo, Resource, Cat Chow, Dentalife, Dog Chow, Fancy Feast, Felix, Friskies, Gourmet, Purina, Purina ONE, Purina Pro Plan, Purina Pro Plan Veterinary Diets, Acqua Panna, Nestlé Pure Life, Perrier, S.Pellegrino, Sanpellegrino, Buxton, Erikli, Levissima, Vittel, Contrex, HENNIEZ, Hépar, La Vie, Naleczowianka, and Essentia brands. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Vevey, Switzerland. Aimmune Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Nestlé S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nestle S.A. reported revenue of CHF 89.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 87.5B in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 9.0B in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +0.2 % · buybacks/dilution +2.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NESN screens 37% overvalued. Compare with Danone S.A →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 649 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danone S.A BN | €64.28 | €48.41 | −25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $25.13 | $24.59 | −2% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $40.44 | $28.32 | −30% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,511 | ₹1,765 | −68% |
| McCormick & Company MKCV | $55.65 | $43.29 | −22% |
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