Nestle S.A. (NESN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nestle S.A. stock CHF 59.51, price CHF 83.70, upside -28.9%, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
Our calculation puts a fair price 29% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 68/100
Generates free cash flow
3.7% dividend yield · Sustainable
Wide moat69/100
Broad data
Thin margins · 8.4% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
Fair value CHF 59.51 · Overvalued (−28.9%)
Weak Growth(revenue 5y +1.1 %/yr in CHF)
🚩AI analysis: Cocoa price shocks hitting chocolate business hard🚩AI risk: GLP-1 drugs could cut demand for snacks🚩AI risk: EU deforestation rules could raise cocoa costs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 68.21 – CHF 110.76 · fair‑value band CHF 36.96 – CHF 88.54 · the CHF 83.70 price screens above the CHF 59.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Nestlé S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverage, and nutritional science products in the United States, Brazil, Mexico, Greater China, the Philippines, India, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Switzerland, and internationally.
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The company offers cereals, chocolate and confectionery, coffee, culinary, chilled and frozen food, dairy, drinks, food service, ice cream, nutrition and health, petcare, water, plant-based portfolio, and recipe products.
It sells its products under the Nesquik Cereal, Fitness, Cheerios, Lion Cereals, Cini Minis, KitKat Cereal, Chocapic, Koko Krunch, Shreddies, Shredded Wheat Original, Corn Flakes, Trix Cereal, Aero, Baci Perugina, KitKat, Milkybar, Smarties, Cailler, Quality Street, Garoto, Nestlé Toll House, Munch, Damak, Hsu Fu Chi, Sahne Nuss, Nestlé Sustainably Sourced Cocoa, Blue Bottle Coffee, Nescafé, Nescafé Dolce Gusto, Nespresso, Starbucks Coffee At Home, DiGiorno, Garden Gourmet, Maggi, Thomy, Stouffer's, Hot Pockets, Lean Cuisine, Life Cuisine, Buitoni, Nestlé carnation, Nestlé Coffee Mate, and Nestea brands.
The company also offers its products under the Roastelier by Nescafé, Plant-based and so good!, Milo, Chef, Maggi Professional, La Lechera, Minor's, Antica Gelateria Del Corso, Drumstick, Extrême, Häagen-Dazs, Maxibon, Mövenpick, Nancare, Gerber, Cerelac, Nestum, Alfaré HMO, Athéra HMO, Alfamino HMO, Bear Brand, Nido, Orgain, Nestlé Vital, Garden of Life, Pure Encapsulations, Solgar, Compleat, Impact, Peptamen, Vitaflo, Resource, Cat Chow, Dentalife, Dog Chow, Fancy Feast, Felix, Friskies, Gourmet, Purina, Purina ONE, Purina Pro Plan, Purina Pro Plan Veterinary Diets, Acqua Panna, Nestlé Pure Life, Perrier, S.Pellegrino, Sanpellegrino, Buxton, Erikli, Levissima, Vittel, Contrex, HENNIEZ, Hépar, La Vie, Naleczowianka, and Essentia brands.
The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Vevey, Switzerland. Aimmune Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Nestlé S.A.
Stock analysis
Nestle S.A. (NESN) currently trades at CHF 83.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 59.51, 28.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 69.76 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the CHF 83.70 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at CHF 24.92, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 36.96 (bear) to CHF 88.54 (bull), the price of CHF 83.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Nestle S.A. reported revenue of CHF 89.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 87.5B in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 9.0B in FY2025, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 215B Mega · P/E ratio 29.0 · P/S ratio 2.45 · EPS (TTM) CHF 2.89 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 8.4% · Return on equity 26.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −29%, NESN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 36.96Fair Value CHF 59.51BullCHF 88.54
Price CHF 83.70 · Upside -28.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.0% vs 1.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Nestle maintains a moderate moat via scale and margins in packaged foods, yet thin public data on human capital and innovation restricts assessment of durable differentiation.
Main risk: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy might permanently reduce consumer appetite for calorie-rich packaged foods, snacks and chocolate, hitting Nestlé’s confectionery and nutrition sales.
Bull case: Nestlé could adapt by developing specialised high-protein and functional products for GLP-1 users while using its scale to secure traceable, regenerative cocoa supplies that meet new regulations ahead of rivals.
Bear case: If GLP-1 adoption accelerates and regulatory hurdles persist in key sourcing regions, Nestlé might face sustained volume declines in core categories and higher input costs that erode margins across its packaged foods portfolio.
Nestle is stepping up cocoa purchases from Brazil while helping farmers adopt regenerative methods that cut fertilizer needs, aiming to diversify away from Western Africa after recent price shocks hit its chocolate business hard. The approach strengthens long-term supply resilience for brands like KitKat, yet new plantings take up to five years to deliver meaningful volumes. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the supply chain gains outpace ongoing input cost pressures?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 615 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−29.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)29.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.62× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.45× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow19.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.88× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)33· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)74· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nestle S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NESN
Frequently asked questions
Is Nestle S.A. (NESN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 59.51 versus a price of CHF 83.70, about −29% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NESN?
Our model-based fair value for Nestle S.A. is CHF 59.51 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 83.70.
What is the quality score of NESN?
Nestle S.A. has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 59.51 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 36.96, optimistic scenario CHF 88.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nestle S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 59.51, about −29% upside versus a price of CHF 83.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 36.96, optimistic scenario CHF 88.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
Nestle S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 88.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Nestle S.A. pay a dividend?
Nestle S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 3.70% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nestle S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NESN use?
Our models discount Nestle S.A. at 7.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nestle S.A. that is +5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nestle S.A. (NESN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nestle S.A. grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies +5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nestle S.A. (NESN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nestle S.A. (+5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.28 %: that much free cash flow Nestle S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nestle S.A. it is CHF 59.51 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of CHF 83.70. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nestle S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, NESN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 83.70, fair value CHF 59.51, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NESN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 83.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 59.51). For Nestle S.A. the two are CHF 24.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nestle S.A. worth?
The market values Nestle S.A. at about CHF 215B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is CHF 83.70; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 59.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NESN?
Our models span a range for Nestle S.A.: cautious scenario CHF 36.96, base CHF 59.51, optimistic CHF 88.54 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price CHF 83.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NESN?
Nestle S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.0 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 59.51 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.0. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 6.6, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 15.6.
What is the PEG ratio of NESN?
The PEG ratio of Nestle S.A. is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nestle S.A. (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 26.2%, debt of 1.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NESN from its 52-week high?
Nestle S.A. trades at CHF 83.70, about 3% below its 52-week high of CHF 86.17 and 21% above the low of CHF 69.03 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 59.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nestle S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nestle S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price CHF 83.70, calculated fair value CHF 59.51 (−29%), Quality Score 68/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NESN calculated?
We run Nestle S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 59.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nestle S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was CHF 83.70. Our model-based fair value is CHF 59.51, about −29% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nestle S.A. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 36.96 to CHF 88.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Nestle S.A. (NESN) come from?
Earnings per share at Nestle S.A. grew +1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin +1.7 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nestle S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The market capitalisation of Nestle S.A. is CHF 215B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nestle S.A. is 2.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
Earnings per share at Nestle S.A. are CHF 2.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The dividend yield of Nestle S.A. is 3.7% (payout 107%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The net margin of Nestle S.A. is 8.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nestle S.A. is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nestle S.A. is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
The operating margin of Nestle S.A. is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
Revenue at Nestle S.A. is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nestle S.A. (NESN)?
Earnings per share at Nestle S.A. are growing −31.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nestle S.A. (NESN) carry?
The net debt of Nestle S.A. is CHF 53.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 23, 2026