Kerry Group (KRZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kerry Group stock €60.33, price €99.10, upside -39.1%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €64.40 – €119.99 · fair‑value band €33.90 – €91.16 · the €99.10 price screens above the €60.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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Kerry Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides taste and nutrition solutions. The company offers taste solutions, such as dairy and dairy-free flavours, savoury flavours and extracts, smoke and grill, sweet flavours and extracts, and taste modulations.
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It also provides nutrition solutions, including enzymes, proteins, nutritional lipids and bases, soluble dietary fibre, wellness and health, and dairy ingredients. In addition, the company offers functional ingredients, food solutions, and beverage solutions.
Further, it provides pharmaceutical excipients, tablet film coatings, pharma lactose, cell culture supplements, fermentation, and acetates solutions.
Additionally, the company offers emulsifier ingredients for bakery; food protection and preservation solutions; food reformulation solutions; bakery freshness solutions; texturant solutions; and foodservice solutions that include convenience retail and custom solutions under DaVinci Gourmet, Golden Dipt, Big Train, and Island Oasis brands.
The company also engages in the investment and trading activities, as well as provides services. It serves food, beverage, supplement, pharma and life science, and pet markets. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa.
It provides its products through retail and foodservice channels. Kerry Group plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Tralee, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Kerry Group (KRZ) currently trades at €99.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €60.33, 39.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €73.04 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the €99.10 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €20.04, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €33.90 (bear) to €91.16 (bull), the price of €99.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kerry Group reported revenue of €6.8B in FY2025 versus €7.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was €659M in FY2025, compounding −3.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €16.0B Large · P/E ratio 25.3 · P/S ratio 2.42 · EPS (TTM) €3.92 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −39%, KRZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€33.90Fair Value €60.33Bull€91.16
Price €99.10 · Upside -39.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€2.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.0% vs 3.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.6% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (69 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Kerry's completed shift to a pure-play taste and nutrition business supports margin gains via biotech and enzyme innovations, yet limited differentiation evidence and raw material pressures constrain the outlook.
Main risk: Raw material and regional demand pressures could limit volume growth and hinder the targeted margin expansion in the taste and nutrition portfolio.
Kerry has completed its transformation into a pure-play taste and nutrition company and now targets 20 to 21 percent EBITDA margins by 2030 via biotechnology, enzymes and sugar reduction innovations. Volume growth has outpaced the market in recent years yet the business still faces raw material and regional demand pressures. Our models currently see it as overvalued, so will the mix shift to higher-value ingredients drive the margin expansion or will slower end-market conditions limit the upside?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 615 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−39.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.6% · Above median
Return on assets6.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.3× · Pricier than median
P/B2.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.42× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow32.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.28× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kerry Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KRZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Kerry Group (KRZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €60.33 versus a price of €99.10, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KRZ?
Our model-based fair value for Kerry Group is €60.33 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €99.10.
What is the quality score of KRZ?
Kerry Group has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kerry Group (KRZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €60.33 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €33.90, optimistic scenario €91.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kerry Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €60.33, about −39% upside versus a price of €99.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €33.90, optimistic scenario €91.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
Kerry Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
Does Kerry Group pay a dividend?
Kerry Group currently shows a dividend yield of 1.46% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kerry Group (KRZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kerry Group would have to grow free cash flow by +17.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KRZ use?
Our models discount Kerry Group at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Ireland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kerry Group that is +17.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kerry Group (KRZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kerry Group grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +17.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kerry Group (KRZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kerry Group (+17.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.09 %: that much free cash flow Kerry Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kerry Group it is €60.33 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of €99.10. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kerry Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, KRZ trades above its calculated fair value: price €99.10, fair value €60.33, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KRZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€99.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€60.33). For Kerry Group the two are €38.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kerry Group worth?
The market values Kerry Group at about €16.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is €99.10; our models calculate a fair value of €60.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KRZ?
Our models span a range for Kerry Group: cautious scenario €33.90, base €60.33, optimistic €91.16 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price €99.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KRZ?
Kerry Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.3 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €60.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 25.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.7, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
What is the PEG ratio of KRZ?
The PEG ratio of Kerry Group is 1.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kerry Group (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 10.6%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KRZ from its 52-week high?
Kerry Group trades at €99.10, about 1% below its 52-week high of €99.60 and 54% above the low of €64.40 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €60.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kerry Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kerry Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price €99.10, calculated fair value €60.33 (−39%), Quality Score 69/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KRZ calculated?
We run Kerry Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €60.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Kerry Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was €99.10. Our model-based fair value is €60.33, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kerry Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€91.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€33.90 to €91.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Kerry Group (KRZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Kerry Group grew +11.6 % a year from 2011 to 2022. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin +5.6 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kerry Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The market capitalisation of Kerry Group is €16.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kerry Group is 2.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
Earnings per share at Kerry Group are €3.92 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The dividend yield of Kerry Group is 1.5% (payout 36.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The net margin of Kerry Group is 9.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kerry Group is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kerry Group is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kerry Group (KRZ)?
The operating margin of Kerry Group is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kerry Group (KRZ)?
Revenue at Kerry Group is growing −3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kerry Group (KRZ)?
Earnings per share at Kerry Group are growing −3.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kerry Group (KRZ) carry?
The net debt of Kerry Group is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 23, 2026