The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $12.0B
The J. M. Smucker Company
SJM · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $45.78 to $158.87 (+247.0%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 32% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($65.06 to $267.69). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $88.55 – $143.08 · fair‑value band $65.06 – $267.69 · the $120.63 price screens below the $158.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) currently trades at $120.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $158.87, implying the stock looks roughly 31.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The J. M. Smucker Company generated revenue of $8.9B at a net margin of -14.1%. Revenue grew 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.7%. Net debt stands at $7.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $65.06 (bear case) to $267.69 (bull case); at $120.63, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 32%, SJM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($82.97) versus Growth DCF ($27.85). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks.
Full company description
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. It offers coffee, sweet baked goods, pet snacks, frozen handheld products, peanut butter, cat and dog food, fruit and specialty spreads, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, portion control products, toppings and syrups, baking mixes and ingredients, and flour. The company provides its products under the Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The J. M. Smucker Company reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2026 versus $8.0B in FY2022, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$139M in FY2026.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Does J. M. Smucker (SJM) Look Overvalued After A 22% Rise?
- Is The J. M. Smucker Co. (SJM) Stock Outpacing Its Consumer Staples Peers This Year?
- The J.M. Smucker Co. to Report First Quarter Earnings and Participate in the 2026 Barclays Global Consumer Staples Conference
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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