The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $12.0B · ISIN US8326964058
What is The J. M. Smucker Company really worth?
The J. M. Smucker Company
SJM · US
A solid business, trading 19% below our fair value of $158.89.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $88.27 to $158.89 (+80.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +7.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($65.07 to $267.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $88.55 – $143.08 · fair‑value band $65.07 – $267.71 · the $128.51 price screens below the $158.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) currently trades at $128.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $158.89, implying the stock looks roughly 19.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $82.97 per share, and 2 of the 11 models we run sit above the $128.51 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $27.85, and 9 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, The J. M. Smucker Company generated revenue of $8.9B at a net margin of −14.1%. Revenue grew 7.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −20.7%. Net debt stands at $7.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $65.07 (bear case) to $267.71 (bull case); at $128.51, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 24%, SJM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($82.97) versus Growth DCF ($27.85). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks.
Full company description
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. The company operates through four segments: U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Frozen Handheld and Spreads, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and Sweet Baked Snacks. It offers coffee, sweet baked goods, pet snacks, frozen handheld products, peanut butter, cat and dog food, fruit and specialty spreads, cookies, frozen sandwiches and snacks, hot beverages, portion control products, toppings and syrups, baking mixes and ingredients, and flour. The company provides its products under the Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Meow Mix, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Canine Carry Outs, Hostess, 1850, Robin Hood, and Five Roses brands. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, mass merchandisers, supermarket chains, national mass retailers, convenience stores, vending channels, and foodservice distributors and operators. The J. M. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The J. M. Smucker Company reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2026 versus $8.0B in FY2022, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$139M in FY2026.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Judge says Smucker's lawsuit against Trader Joe's over frozen PB&J can proceed
- J. M. Smucker (SJM) Grew Sales 5% Due to Pricing. Is Volume Growth Broad Enough?
- Stocks making big moves this week: Napco, J. M. Smucker, HP, Paymentus, and Funko
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 648 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 78.62 | CHF 57.26 | −27% |
| Danone S.A BN | €64.28 | €48.41 | −25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | −83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $25.13 | $24.59 | −2% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | −37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | −61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $40.44 | $28.32 | −30% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,511 | ₹1,765 | −68% |
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