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CNOOC Ltd (0883) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · HK · Market cap HK$1.1T (≈ $139B) · ISIN HK0883013259

What is CNOOC Ltd really worth?

CL CNOOC Ltd 0883 · HK
PriceHK$25.06
Fair ValueHK$26.54
Upside+5.9%
Quality63/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$26.54.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 30.6% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (13/15)
✓Wide moat 65/100

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +20.0 %/yr)

For context

·4.59% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$19.94 – HK$33.98

Fair value as of: Aug 25, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 11 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 25, 2026, revised from HK$39.70 to HK$26.54 (−33.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +9.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$29.84 HK$4.77 Fair Value HK$26.54 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$4.77 – HK$29.84 · fair‑value band HK$19.94 – HK$33.98 · the HK$25.06 price screens below the HK$26.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 25, 2026.

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Analysis

CNOOC Ltd (0883) currently trades at HK$25.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$26.54, implying the stock looks roughly 5.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$40.62 per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$25.06 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$12.08, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, CNOOC Ltd generated revenue of HK$407B at a net margin of 30.6%. Revenue grew 8.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$8.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$19.94 (bear case) to HK$33.98 (bull case); at HK$25.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 6%, 0883 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.9948 per share, which is 3.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$27.69 HK$46.25 HK$77.37 76
EPV HK$28.38 HK$33.31 HK$37.69 74
Growth DCF HK$28.03 HK$46.53 HK$77.96 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$27.69 HK$46.25 HK$77.37 76
Owner Earnings HK$26.22 HK$43.79 HK$73.23 72
5Y Revenue Exit HK$14.05 HK$19.76 HK$26.78 71
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$24.82 HK$40.62 HK$59.41 72
5Y P/E Exit HK$26.38 HK$43.64 HK$62.26 68
10Y Revenue Exit HK$18.21 HK$24.82 HK$33.41 65
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$25.57 HK$39.91 HK$59.73 66
10Y P/E Exit HK$26.60 HK$42.10 HK$62.03 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$18.16 HK$66.05 HK$89.11 62
Lynch FV HK$15.70 HK$22.43 HK$29.16 59
PEG = 1.0 HK$15.70 HK$22.43 HK$29.16 55
EPV HK$28.38 HK$33.31 HK$37.69 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$12.71 HK$27.76 HK$46.70 63
DDM Multi-Stage HK$12.71 HK$22.74 HK$28.93 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$28.04 HK$37.38 HK$46.73 63
P/S Multiple HK$7.80 HK$10.40 HK$13.00 58
P/B Multiple HK$24.34 HK$32.46 HK$40.57 55
EV/EBIT HK$29.19 HK$38.77 HK$48.35 66
EV/EBITDA HK$25.92 HK$34.41 HK$42.90 67
EV/Revenue HK$7.72 HK$10.84 HK$13.96 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$9.02 HK$12.08 HK$18.03 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$28.03 HK$46.53 HK$77.96 74
Rev-Margin DCF HK$14.05 HK$20.05 HK$27.38 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$18.47 HK$23.63 HK$58.81 66
ROIC Compounder HK$31.12 HK$41.43 HK$55.02 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$23.53 HK$33.61 HK$43.70 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$40.62) versus Asset-Based (HK$12.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.9 as of Jun 7, 2026
P/S ratio 2.74 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$2.62 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9
Dividend yield 4.6% payout 43.9%
Net margin 30.8% FY2025
Return on equity 15.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 16.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 44.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$407B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.6% 3y avg −3.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +6.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$96.9B FY2025
Net cash HK$8.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 55
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 40
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China.

Full company description

CNOOC Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in worldwide. The company produces offshore crude oil and natural gas primarily in Bohai Sea, the Western South China Sea, the Eastern South China Sea, and the East China Sea in China. It also holds interests in various oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, Oceania, and Europe. In addition, the company is involved in the sales and trading of petroleum and natural gas; oil sands exploration, development, and production; and exploration, development, and production of unconventional natural gas resources in onshore China, as well as in shale oil and gas activities. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hong Kong. CNOOC Limited operates as a subsidiary of CNOOC (BVI) LTD.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CNOOC Ltd reported revenue of 386B CNY in FY2025 versus 246B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 119B CNY in FY2025, compounding +14.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$386B
Latest YoY
−8.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+17.4% (12.8 + 4.6)
Revenue +11.9%/yr
FY21 246B CNY
FY22 432B CNY
FY23 417B CNY
FY24 421B CNY
FY25 386B CNY
Net income +14.0%/yr
FY21 70.3B CNY
FY22 142B CNY
FY23 124B CNY
FY24 138B CNY
FY25 119B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +12.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.9 %

of which total revenue +6.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %

EBIT margin +8.0 %
Tax rate −1.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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CNOOC Ltd · Fair Value
HK$26.54 +6%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CNOOC Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0883

Peer Group

Oil & Gas E&P · 296 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +6% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 45% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.35× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.67× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.16× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE41 · sector 9
FUTURE43 · sector 7
PAST61 · sector 9
HEALTH96 · sector 87
DIVIDEND92 · sector 70

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 25, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CNOOC Limited 600938 ¥32.85 ¥32.55 −1%
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $130.35 $90.15 −31%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ C$69.03 C$44.78 −35%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $143.35 $132.20 −8%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $59.17 $30.06 −49%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $200.52 $105.24 −48%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $47.35 $27.06 −43%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.55 A$20.71 −36%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.57 $42.85 −21%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $366.50 $77.26 −79%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CNOOC Ltd (0883) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$26.54 versus a price of HK$25.06, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0883?
Our model-based fair value for CNOOC Ltd is HK$26.54 (as of Aug 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$25.06.
What is the quality score of 0883?
CNOOC Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CNOOC Ltd (0883)?
CNOOC Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$407B (latest available figure, as of Aug 25, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0883?
The net profit margin of CNOOC Ltd is about 30.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CNOOC Ltd pay a dividend?
CNOOC Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.59% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 25, 2026).
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