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Geely Automobile Holdings (0175) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$199B

GA Geely Automobile Holdings 0175 · HK
PriceHK$17.82
Fair ValueHK$15.64
Upside-12.2%
Quality64/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 4.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/15)
Moderate moat 45/100
Evidence: High Range HK$11.73 – HK$41.67 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$30.72 to HK$15.64 (−49.1%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −3.2% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (HK$11.73 to HK$41.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$25.99 HK$6.85 Fair Value HK$15.64 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$6.85 – HK$25.99 · fair‑value band HK$11.73 – HK$41.67 · the HK$17.82 price screens above the HK$15.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Geely Automobile Holdings (0175) currently trades at HK$17.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.64, implying the stock looks roughly 12.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Geely Automobile Holdings generated revenue of HK$356B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 15.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$45.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$11.73 (bear case) to HK$41.67 (bull case); at HK$17.82, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -12%, 0175 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$68.43 HK$130.17 HK$231.34 80
Residual Income HK$10.50 HK$14.34 HK$62.91 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$34.06 HK$48.59 HK$79.60 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$72.39 HK$110.62 HK$232.35 38
Owner Earnings HK$46.20 HK$97.82 HK$206.17 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$31.82 HK$43.08 HK$65.99 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$40.65 HK$60.93 HK$100.46 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$43.46 HK$80.72 HK$129.92 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$43.60 HK$70.77 HK$82.37 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$50.48 HK$89.78 HK$153.28 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$52.53 HK$95.83 HK$163.31 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$10.63 HK$74.10 HK$103.99 54
Lynch FV HK$38.28 HK$54.69 HK$71.10 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$38.28 HK$54.69 HK$71.10 46
EPV HK$12.69 HK$13.85 HK$14.86 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.59 HK$5.38 HK$8.53 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.59 HK$4.54 HK$5.65 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$25.78 HK$34.38 HK$42.97 63
P/S Multiple HK$19.92 HK$26.56 HK$33.20 58
P/B Multiple HK$19.92 HK$26.56 HK$33.20 55
EV/EBIT HK$20.10 HK$24.89 HK$29.68 53
EV/EBITDA HK$27.81 HK$35.16 HK$42.51 54
EV/Revenue HK$15.42 HK$19.57 HK$23.72 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$4.29 HK$5.74 HK$8.57 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$68.43 HK$130.17 HK$231.34 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$34.06 HK$48.59 HK$79.60 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$10.50 HK$14.34 HK$62.91 76
ROIC Compounder HK$15.27 HK$21.22 HK$26.19 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$50.82 HK$72.60 HK$94.37 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$80.72) versus Dividend Discount (HK$4.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$356B
Revenue growth (YoY) +15.6%
Net margin 4.3%
Return on equity 16.0%
Free cash flow HK$42.7B FY2025
P/E ratio 9.8 as of Jul 17, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 5.0%
EPS (TTM) HK$1.58
EPS growth (YoY) -4.3%
Net cash HK$45.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 76
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 66
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an automobile manufacturer primarily in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an automobile manufacturer primarily in the People's Republic of China. The company engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of passenger vehicles; automobile parts; and related automobile components, including electric powertrain and battery systems, as well as provides related after-sales and technical services. It also offers electric mobility related products under the ZEEKR brand; automotive design, software systems development, modular development, intelligent electric vehicles virtual engineering, and mobility technology solutions; knockdown kits; export of vehicles; automotive-related integrated vehicle services; and provision of general logistic, packing, and storage services. It operates in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and internationally. Geely Automobile Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Geely Automobile Holdings reported revenue of HK$345B in FY2025 versus HK$102B in FY2021, a compound +35.8%/yr. Reported net income was HK$16.9B in FY2025, compounding +36.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$345B
Latest YoY
+43.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+32.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+30.2%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+41.1%
Revenue +35.8%/yr
FY21 HK$102B
FY22 HK$148B
FY23 HK$179B
FY24 HK$240B
FY25 HK$345B
Net income +36.5%/yr
FY21 HK$4.8B
FY22 HK$5.3B
FY23 HK$5.3B
FY24 HK$16.6B
FY25 HK$16.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +16.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +22.6 pp

of which total revenue +24.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.0 pp

EBIT margin −4.9 pp
Tax rate +1.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0175 screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
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Geely Automobile Holdings · Fair Value
HK$15.64 −12%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Geely Automobile Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0175

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −12% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth 16% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 2.16× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.56× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 8.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.89× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 17 · sector 33
FUTURE 78 · sector 33
PAST 64 · sector 20
HEALTH 97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 46

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $188.22 $247.83 +32%
BYD Company 81211 HK$76.90 HK$48.59 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N 1,909 MXN 2,610 MXN +37%
Ford Motor Company F C$11.72 C$3.70 -68%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,783 CZK +262%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,875 ₹8,236 -41%
Kia Corporation 000270 135,600 KRW 341,751 KRW +152%
Weichai Power Co 2338 HK$36.40 HK$28.46 -22%
Bajaj Auto Limited BAJAJAUTO ₹11,700 ₹4,574 -61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Geely Automobile Holdings (0175) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$15.64 versus a price of HK$17.82, about −12% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0175?
Our model-based fair value for Geely Automobile Holdings is HK$15.64 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$17.82.
What is the quality score of 0175?
Geely Automobile Holdings has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Geely Automobile Holdings (0175)?
Geely Automobile Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$356B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0175?
The net profit margin of Geely Automobile Holdings is about 4.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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