Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (0175) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$199B (≈ $25.4B) · ISIN KYG3777B1032

What is Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd really worth?

GA Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd 0175 · HK

PriceHK$17.28

Fair ValueHK$15.64

Upside−9.5%

Quality64/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$15.64.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +30.2 %/yr)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓Ranks above peers (10/15)

Risks

!Thin margins · 4.3% net margin

!Moderate moat 45/100

!The models disagree: range HK$11.73 to HK$41.67

!Weak on valuation: 21 out of 100

Evidence: High Range HK$11.73 – HK$41.67

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$30.72 to HK$15.64 (−49.1%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −11.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The model range is unusually wide (HK$11.73 to HK$41.67). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$6.85 – HK$25.99 · fair‑value band HK$11.73 – HK$41.67 · the HK$17.28 price screens above the HK$15.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (0175) currently trades at HK$17.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.64, implying the stock looks roughly 10.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$80.72 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$17.28 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$4.54, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd generated revenue of HK$356B at a net margin of 4.3%. Revenue grew 15.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$45.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$11.73 (bear case) to HK$41.67 (bull case); at HK$17.28, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −9%, 0175 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$1.07 per share, which is 6.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

EPV HK$12.69 HK$13.85 HK$14.86 74

FCF DCF HK$72.39 HK$110.62 HK$232.35 73

Growth DCF HK$68.43 HK$130.17 HK$231.34 73

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF HK$72.39 HK$110.62 HK$232.35 73

Owner Earnings HK$46.20 HK$97.82 HK$206.17 68

5Y Revenue Exit HK$31.82 HK$43.08 HK$65.99 70

5Y EBITDA Exit HK$40.65 HK$60.93 HK$100.46 71

5Y P/E Exit HK$43.46 HK$80.72 HK$129.92 66

10Y Revenue Exit HK$43.60 HK$70.77 HK$82.37 66

10Y EBITDA Exit HK$50.48 HK$89.78 HK$153.28 64

10Y P/E Exit HK$52.53 HK$95.83 HK$163.31 60

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd HK$10.63 HK$74.10 HK$103.99 61

Lynch FV HK$38.28 HK$54.69 HK$71.10 59

PEG = 1.0 HK$38.28 HK$54.69 HK$71.10 55

EPV HK$12.69 HK$13.85 HK$14.86 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM HK$2.59 HK$5.38 HK$8.53 64

DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.59 HK$4.54 HK$5.65 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple HK$25.78 HK$34.38 HK$42.97 63

P/S Multiple HK$19.92 HK$26.56 HK$33.20 58

P/B Multiple HK$19.92 HK$26.56 HK$33.20 55

EV/EBIT HK$20.10 HK$24.89 HK$29.68 66

EV/EBITDA HK$27.81 HK$35.16 HK$42.51 67

EV/Revenue HK$15.42 HK$19.57 HK$23.72 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) HK$4.29 HK$5.74 HK$8.57 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF HK$68.43 HK$130.17 HK$231.34 73

Rev-Margin DCF HK$34.06 HK$48.59 HK$79.60 69

Economic Profit

Residual Income HK$10.50 HK$14.34 HK$62.91 61

ROIC Compounder HK$15.27 HK$21.22 HK$26.19 70

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E HK$50.82 HK$72.60 HK$94.37 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$80.72) versus Dividend Discount (HK$4.54). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.8 as of Jul 17, 2026

P/S ratio 0.48 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) HK$1.58 price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8

Dividend yield 1.5% payout 16.7%

Net margin 4.9% FY2025

Return on equity 16.0% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% avg 5y

Operating margin 5.0% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) HK$356B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +15.6% 3y avg +32.6%

EPS growth (YoY) −4.3%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow HK$42.7B FY2025

Net cash HK$45.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 54

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 68

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 76

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 71

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 55

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 74

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 44

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 25

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 66

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an automobile manufacturer primarily in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an automobile manufacturer primarily in the People's Republic of China. The company engages in the research and development, production, marketing, and sale of passenger vehicles; automobile parts; and related automobile components, including electric powertrain and battery systems, as well as provides related after-sales and technical services. It also offers electric mobility related products under the ZEEKR brand; automotive design, software systems development, modular development, intelligent electric vehicles virtual engineering, and mobility technology solutions; knockdown kits; export of vehicles; automotive-related integrated vehicle services; and provision of general logistic, packing, and storage services. It operates in Eastern Europe, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and internationally. Geely Automobile Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 345B CNY in FY2025 versus 102B CNY in FY2021, a compound +35.8%/yr. Reported net income was 16.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +36.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 95/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

HK$345B

Latest YoY

+43.7%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+32.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+30.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+41.1%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+24.5% (23.0 + 1.5)

Revenue +35.8%/yr

FY21 102B CNY

FY22 148B CNY

FY23 179B CNY

FY24 240B CNY

FY25 345B CNY

Net income +36.5%/yr

FY21 4.8B CNY

FY22 5.3B CNY

FY23 5.3B CNY

FY24 16.6B CNY

FY25 16.9B CNY

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +16.1 % p.a.

Revenue per share +22.6 %

of which total revenue +24.6 % · buybacks/dilution −1.6 %

EBIT margin −4.9 %

Tax rate +1.0 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd · Fair Value
HK$15.64 −10%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0175

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −10% · Below median

Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Above median

Return on assets 3% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median

Revenue growth 16% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Below median

Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

P/B 2.16× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 0.56× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 0.6× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 8.1× · Cheaper than median

PEG 0.89× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE21 · sector 23

FUTURE78 · sector 27

PAST64 · sector 22

HEALTH97 · sector 94

DIVIDEND31 · sector 51

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM	$191.84	$247.83	+29%
BYD Company 81211	HK$76.90	HK$48.59	−37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380	418,500 KRW	567,393 KRW	+36%
Ferrari N.V RACE	€355.50	€167.67	−53%
General Motors Company GM	$86.27	$52.69	−39%
Ford Motor Company F	$13.88	$11.51	−17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG	€46.95	€106.16	+126%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911	€43.91	€17.34	−61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI	₹12,694	₹8,236	−35%
Volkswagen AG VOW3	€77.42	€248.34	+221%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (0175) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$15.64 versus a price of HK$17.28, about −9% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of 0175?

Our model-based fair value for Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd is HK$15.64 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$17.28.

What is the quality score of 0175?

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd (0175)?

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$356B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of 0175?

The net profit margin of Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd is about 4.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?

Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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