Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (000625) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 70.5B CNY
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥10.84 to ¥11.63 (+7.3%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price +2.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥8.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.42 – ¥20.41 · fair‑value band ¥8.20 – ¥12.82 · the ¥7.27 price screens below the ¥11.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (000625) currently trades at ¥7.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.63, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company generated revenue of 163B CNY at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 62.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥8.20 (bear case) to ¥12.82 (bull case); at ¥7.27, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 60%, 000625 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥25.21) versus Asset-Based (¥6.26). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles.
Full company description
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles. It offers its products under the CHANGAN, DEEPAL, AVATR, CHANGAN NEVO, CHANGAN LCV, CHANGAN Ford, CHANGAN Mazda, LUMIN, UNI, and HUNTER brands. The company also develops EV technologies represented by batteries, motors, and electronic controls; intelligent technologies, such as cockpits and pilot, as well as automotive lifestyle services; and businesses comprising automotive life, new marketing, and battery swap services, as well as provides auto finance services. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Chongqing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company reported revenue of ¥164B in FY2025 versus ¥105B in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.1B in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $188.22 | $247.83 | +32% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,610 MXN | +37% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,783 CZK | +262% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,875 | ₹8,236 | -41% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 135,600 KRW | 341,751 KRW | +152% |
| Weichai Power Co 2338 | HK$36.40 | HK$28.46 | -22% |
| Geely Automobile Holdings 80175 | HK$15.50 | HK$19.14 | +23% |
| Bajaj Auto Limited BAJAJAUTO | ₹11,700 | ₹4,574 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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