Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 70.5B CNY (≈ $10.5B) · ISIN CNE000000R36
What is Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 37% below our fair value of ¥11.30.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from ¥10.84 to ¥11.30 (+4.2%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price −6.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥7.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.42 – ¥20.41 · fair‑value band ¥7.96 – ¥12.45 · the ¥7.12 price screens below the ¥11.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd (000625) currently trades at ¥7.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥11.30, implying the stock looks roughly 37.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥25.21 per share, and 14 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥7.12 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥6.26, and 1 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd generated revenue of 163B CNY at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue declined 4.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 62.8B CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥7.96 (bear case) to ¥12.45 (bull case); at ¥7.12, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 59%, 000625 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.0981 per share, which is 0.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥25.21) versus Asset-Based (¥6.26). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles.
Full company description
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles, automotive engines, supporting parts, and components in the People's Republic of China and South Africa. The company's products include passenger vehicles, SUVs, electric vehicles, and commercial vehicles. It offers its products under the CHANGAN, DEEPAL, AVATR, CHANGAN NEVO, CHANGAN LCV, CHANGAN Ford, CHANGAN Mazda, LUMIN, UNI, and HUNTER brands. The company also develops EV technologies represented by batteries, motors, and electronic controls; intelligent technologies, such as cockpits and pilot, as well as automotive lifestyle services; and businesses comprising automotive life, new marketing, and battery swap services, as well as provides auto finance services. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Chongqing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd reported revenue of 164B CNY in FY2025 versus 105B CNY in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 4.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.8 % · buybacks/dilution −4.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $191.84 | $247.83 | +29% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$76.90 | HK$48.59 | −37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | €355.50 | €167.67 | −53% |
| General Motors Company GM | $86.27 | $52.69 | −39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | $13.88 | $11.51 | −17% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group MBG | €46.95 | €106.16 | +126% |
| Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 | €43.91 | €17.34 | −61% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹12,694 | ₹8,236 | −35% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW3 | €77.42 | €248.34 | +221% |
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