X Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski SA (XTB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · PL · Market cap 15.2B PLN (≈ $4.1B) · ISIN PLXTRDM00011
What is X Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski SA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 121% above our fair value of 71.33 PLN.
Strengths
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 23.85 PLN to 71.33 PLN (+199.1%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −2.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (133.60 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (53.50 PLN to 133.60 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.60 PLN – 184.16 PLN · fair‑value band 53.50 PLN – 133.60 PLN · the 157.74 PLN price screens above the 71.33 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
X Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski SA (XTB) currently trades at 157.74 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 71.33 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 121.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 161.03 PLN per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the 157.74 PLN price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 11.41 PLN, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, X Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski SA generated revenue of 3.2B PLN at a net margin of 31.2%. Revenue grew 89.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 41.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.6B PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 53.50 PLN (bear case) to 133.60 PLN (bull case); at 157.74 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 155% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −55%, XTB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 2.92 PLN per share, which is 4.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (161.03 PLN) versus Asset-Based (11.41 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
XTB S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides ETF, currency derivatives, commodities, indices, stocks, and bonds brokerage services in Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. It operates in two segments, Retail Operations and Institutional Activity.
Full company description
XTB S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides ETF, currency derivatives, commodities, indices, stocks, and bonds brokerage services in Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East. It operates in two segments, Retail Operations and Institutional Activity. The Retail operations segment engages in the provision of trading in financial instruments for individual customers. The Institutional Activity segment is involved in the provision of trading in financial instruments and offering trade infrastructure to institutions, that provides services of trading in financial instruments for own customers under own brand. The company was formerly known as X-Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to XTB S.A. in January 2022. XTB S.A. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. XTB S.A. is a subsidiary of XXZW Investment Group S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
X Trade Brokers Dom Maklerski SA reported revenue of 2.1B PLN in FY2025 versus 642M PLN in FY2021, a compound +34.8%/yr. Reported net income was 644M PLN in FY2025, compounding +28.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +23.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
XTB screens 121% overvalued. Compare with Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, →
Peer Group
Capital Markets · 453 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Capital Markets stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company, MS | $214.77 | $138.97 | −35% |
| The Goldman Sachs Group GS | $1,034 | $756.89 | −27% |
| The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW | $110.16 | $66.17 | −40% |
| Robinhood Markets, Inc HOOD | $104.26 | $30.94 | −70% |
| Macquarie Group MQG | A$251.87 | A$75.58 | −70% |
| CITIC Securities Company 600030 | ¥27.93 | ¥17.68 | −37% |
| Guotai Haitong Securities Co 601211 | ¥17.87 | ¥18.62 | +4% |
| East Money Information Co 300059 | ¥19.42 | ¥4.77 | −75% |
| CSC Financial Co 601066 | ¥25.78 | ¥14.17 | −45% |
| Huatai Securities Co 601688 | ¥19.56 | ¥19.26 | −2% |
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